Situation at 65 oil chokepoints, pipelines and ports on 09/10/2026

Place	Status	Situation	Source
Kharg IslandPort and terminal	blockaded	Iran's most important export terminal is under the US blockade. According to Kpler, not a single crude cargo left the country in September 2026, a first since records began in 2013; the last loading was the Suezmax Sarak at Kharg Island on 25 Aug. Now: no crude loading in September 2026, a first since records began in 2013; last loading on 25 August 2026 (Kpler Insight via congress.net, 6 October 2026). Before: around 1.68 million barrels a day. Kpler, Vortexa and Bloomberg each give zero or practically zero for September, independently of one another. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Iran would have no crude at sea at all this week for the first time; he is a party to the conflict. No Iranian counter-figure is available. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned on 5 Oct, and the acting successor is Hamid Bovard; he announced that he would maximise production and keep exports going as best he could, while the ministry spoke of a comprehensive economic war. Before the blockade Iranian exports stood at around 2 million barrels a day, in May at 260 to just under 300 thousand and in August at 220 to 255 thousand. The statement by CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper on 19 Sep that Iran had exported zero barrels comes from a party to the conflict; the ship trackers' figures now support it.	congress.net 6 October 2026 (Kpler Insight), Rigzone 5 October 2026, The National 5 October 2026, IranWire 5 October 2026, Fortune 19 September 2026 (CENTCOM)
Ras Laffan (Qatar, LNG)Port and terminal	force majeure (LNG)	QatarEnergy has extended the force majeure again: according to The National and LNG Global, into November for Asian long term customers and into December 2026 for European ones; Italy's Edison is named explicitly. Two LNG trains are damaged, and according to the company's chief executive their repair will take up to three years. Now: force majeure extended into November for Asian and into December for European long term customers (The National 2 October 2026, LNG Global 5 October 2026); around 17% of Qatari LNG capacity is out of service (QatarEnergy, 21 September 2026). Before: 509 cargoes in the first half of 2025. According to The National (2 Oct), LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz in September 2026 were still 80% below the February 2026 level, even though it was the highest monthly reading since the war began. On 2 Oct Yukio Kani, chairman and global CEO of Japan's JERA and thus of the world's largest LNG buyer, said he did not expect Qatari LNG back on the market soon; spot prices were twice as high as a year earlier and at their highest level since the end of 2022. According to The National of 28 Sep, the buyers affected are in Pakistan and Bangladesh, at least one buyer in India, and Edison. There is no new statement on the repair time or on current production volumes for the first week of October. Before the war Qatar supplied around a fifth of global LNG; according to LNG Global, US LNG reached a 33% share of world supply in September 2026, after 25% in 2025.	The National 2 October 2026 (JERA) and 28 September 2026, LNG Global 5 October 2026, QatarEnergy via Tradingpedia 21 September 2026, Euronews 31 August 2026
Nord Stream 1 and 2 (Baltic Sea)gas pipeline	destroyed and sanctioned	No gas has flowed through either system since the explosions of 26 September 2022. On 18 July 2025 the EU imposed a full transaction ban that also bars maintenance and any future use. Criminal proceedings are under way in Germany, with the first trial set for 26 October 2026 at the Higher Regional Court in Hamburg. Now: no flow, three of the four pipes damaged (as of 17/09/2026). Before: each designed for 55 billion cubic metres a year; Nord Stream 2 was never in commercial operation. Figures: Al Jazeera, 31/08/2026: both systems were destroyed in the explosions; Wikipedia status, 17/09/2026: line B of Nord Stream 2 was left undamaged, repairing the rest estimated at around 500 million dollars; Putin according to TASS, 04/06/2026: the remaining line needs only a decision by the German government; Bundestag, debate 21/05/2026: all parliamentary groups except the AfD rejected a restart. Statements about a restart come mostly from the Russian side or from US investors with an interest of their own and are not independently confirmed. On responsibility there are charges but no verdicts; Ukraine denies involvement.	Council of the EU 18/07/2025, Al Jazeera 02/07 and 31/08/2026, TASS 04/06/2026, German Bundestag 21/05/2026
Yamal-Europe pipeline (via Belarus and Poland)gas pipeline	shut down since 2022	Gazprom halted all flows through the Polish section in May 2022 after Russia imposed sanctions on the operating company. There has been no westward transit since. Poland took over Gazprom's stake in the Polish section in November 2022. Now: no westward transit, record as of 16/09/2026. Before: nominal capacity 33 billion cubic metres a year. No daily flow measurement is available for 2026. The assessment rests on the record at Global Energy Monitor and the absence of reports to the contrary.	Global Energy Monitor, page as of 16/09/2026, Moscow Times 12/05/2022
Strait of HormuzStrait	restricted, figures heavily disputed	No longer effectively closed, but far below normal operation, and the attacks now reach deep into the Gulf. The Revolutionary Guards declared the strait blocked on 11 Jul, and the USA has been blockading Iranian ports and escorting ships since 14 Jul. Oil volumes out of the region have recovered strongly; according to Kpler around 40% of them bypass the strait through pipelines. Since 2 Oct the British UKMTO has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden; on 7 Oct a tanker was hit north of Qatar, on 9 Oct a supertanker off the UAE. On 9 Oct the navy of the Revolutionary Guards announced that it would pursue ships on unauthorised routes across the whole region; it has not declared the entire Persian Gulf closed. Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said on 4 Oct that the strait would stay closed until seven Iranian conditions were met; President Trump ruled out attacks on Iran before the congressional elections on 3 Nov, and the blockade remains. Now: 247 transits in the week to 2 October 2026, 123 ships inbound and 124 outbound, so around 35 a day; according to the UKMTO that puts traffic around 75% below the level before the conflict (UKMTO, 2 October 2026). Before: around 125 large merchant ships a day before the war (Kpler via Al Jazeera, 6 October 2026); Lloyd's List gave around 100 ships a day; 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025 (EIA). Figures: Revolutionary Guards, navy, 9 Oct: action against ships on unauthorised routes no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz, pursuit across the whole region; hit on the LPG tanker NV Sunshine reported, not independently confirmed; CENTCOM, 7 Oct: Iran's claims of a closure are false; merchant ships and energy shipments, including 20 million barrels of crude, are still passing, no period given; JMIC, 4 Oct: threat in the Strait of Hormuz severe, in the Arabian Gulf moderate; independent tracking shows single-digit transits in each direction; the US NCAGS situation centre, which counts only US-facilitated transits, recorded about 32 a day over 72 hours; UKMTO, 2 Oct: 247 transits in the week to 2 Oct, around 35 a day; by its own account around 75% below the level before the conflict; Kpler Insight via congress.net, 6 Oct: 9,017 thousand barrels a day for the transits alone as a seven day average, around 47% below the pre-war figure of 17,132 thousand; Kpler Insight via congress.net, 6 Oct: 11,549 thousand barrels a day for total handling at Hormuz, that is transits together with transfers in the Gulf of Oman and terminal loadings, around a third below the pre-war figure; Kpler via Al Jazeera, 6 Oct: 18.3 million barrels a day of Middle East crude exports as a seven day average to 30 Sep, about as much as the average of the twelve months before the war; around 40% of that bypasses the strait; Vortexa via Al Jazeera, 6 Oct: 18.6 million barrels a day for crude and condensate as a fourteen day average; JP Morgan, quoted on 6 Oct: 17.5 million barrels a day of crude shipments from the region, 98% of the level before the conflict; product flows only 58%; Kpler via Al Jazeera, 5 Oct: 22.4 million barrels a day for crude, products and chemicals as a seven day average to 30 Sep; Revolutionary Guards, deputy commander Fadavi, 5 Oct: only 3 to 4 million barrels a day were moving through the route, a negligible amount next to the period before the war. The figures differ by a multiple because they measure different things, and for that reason they must not be set against each other. For Hormuz alone Kpler gives three readings: around 47% below the pre-war level for the transits, around a third below for total handling including transfers in the Gulf of Oman and terminal loadings, and roughly the pre-war level for crude exports from the region as a whole, around 40% of which bypass the strait through pipelines. The UKMTO figure counts ships, not barrels; the agency does not state its comparison base, and arithmetically 35 transits a day fits the roughly 125 merchant ships a day that Kpler gives for the pre-war period. AIS data understate traffic because ships switch off their transponders. The US government and the Revolutionary Guards are parties to the conflict. Kpler analyst Michelle Brohard told Al Jazeera on 5 Oct that she considered some form of transit fee likely; the US government stated that no agreement would permit a fee; the transport lawyer Abdul Khalique called the allegation plausible but unproven. On 5 Oct Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser put the supply shortfall since the start of the war at almost 3 billion barrels. The wording of the seven Iranian conditions has not been published; Arab News names the Islamabad memorandum and an interim agreement from June as the basis. Iranian claims of hits are not always accurate: Seatrade Maritime points out that Iranian bodies have reported attacks before that turned out to be false. No independent body has so far confirmed the hit on the NV Sunshine of 9 Oct; according to shipping circles the vessel hit off the UAE the same day is the Gem No.2. The JMIC assessment of 4 Oct predates the attacks off Qatar and the UAE.	Tasnim and Press TV 9 October 2026, UKMTO via Reuters 9 October 2026, Seatrade Maritime 8 and 9 October 2026, UKMTO via Middle East Eye 7 October 2026, IranWire 8 October 2026 (CENTCOM), JMIC Update 102 of 4 October 2026, ABC News 8 October 2026, UKMTO Transit Overview 2 October 2026, Al Jazeera 4, 5 and 6 October 2026 (Kpler, Vortexa, Marisks), congress.net 6 October 2026 (Kpler Insight), Arab News 4 October 2026, Seatrade Maritime 5 October 2026 (UKMTO), The National 5 October 2026, Rigzone 6 October 2026, EIA
Bab el-MandebStrait	severely restricted	The situation on the ground has turned. Government troops and the Saudi-led coalition launched the Yemen Dawn offensive and reported on 5 Oct that they had taken Dhubab district with its airport and the port city of Mokha, and that they controlled the strait. Al Jazeera writes that the Houthis denied this and that it could not verify the claims; The National writes that the Houthis have not confirmed them. On 6 Oct Euronews wrote that the Houthis still held the Yemeni side but had lost Dhubab and had taken Turbah on the road from Taiz to Aden on 4 Oct. On 4 Oct the UKMTO reported several explosions in the immediate vicinity of a tanker in the Red Sea. Now: 266 transits in the week from 28 September to 4 October 2026, 5.7% fewer than the 282 of the previous week; 137 of them laden (Kpler Risk and Compliance via DataPortuaria, 6 October 2026). Before: around 71 ships per day on average from January 2022 to October 2023 (Anadolu), 4.2 million barrels per day before the Red Sea crisis (EIA). The counts diverge: for the week of 21 to 27 Sep Lloyd's List Intelligence gives 290 transits, Kpler 282 for the same week. On the ground two accounts stand against each other: the coalition reports 100 fighter jets in continuous operation and 324 destroyed high value targets (The National, 5 Oct), while the Houthis dispute the territorial claims according to Al Jazeera (5 Oct) and have not confirmed them according to The National; none of it can be verified independently. Mokha is contested too: the coalition says it was taken on 5 Oct, whereas Euronews writes on 6 Oct that the Houthis had captured it in early September. The attack of 4 Oct around 60 nautical miles south of Mokha was reported by the UKMTO as several explosions in the immediate vicinity of a tanker, with no claim of responsibility; Palaemon Maritime considers a Houthi attack likely. According to The National (7 Oct) the Houthis claimed attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Abha airport, the Khamis Mushait base and three military camps in Jizan and Asir, and according to Euronews (6 Oct) also on a refinery in Rabigh; the coalition reported interceptions as well as the destruction of a launch platform in Sanaa and of a missile depot in Saada. Two ballistic missiles and several drones were fired at Aden airport; one missile came down near the runway, one flight was diverted to Jeddah, and no casualties were reported. The WHO and the WFP give more than 5,000 casualties since 6 Aug, 959 of them dead, and around 200,000 displaced; Euronews gives 959 dead, more than 4,200 injured and 174,097 internally displaced.	Kpler Risk and Compliance via DataPortuaria 6 October 2026, Lloyd's List Intelligence 1 October 2026, Al Arabiya and The National 5 October 2026, Al Jazeera 5 October 2026, Euronews 6 October 2026, The National 7 October 2026, Palaemon Maritime 5 October 2026, EIA
Ras TanuraPort and terminal	loading, route runs through Hormuz	Loadings were ramped up sharply to make up for the outage at Yanbu. The oil has to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the restart of the East-West pipeline, a growing share of exports has been running via the Red Sea again. Now: Saudi crude and condensate exports at around 91% of the level before the conflict, with crude exports in September at around 6.6 million barrels a day (Vortexa via Reuters, 6 October 2026); weekly loadings were at their highest level since April 2020 according to Kpler. Before: normally 6 to 7 ships per week. For Ras Tanura itself no separate loading figure is available for the first week of October. The surveys measure different things and must not be set against each other: Vortexa gives 6.6 million barrels a day for total Saudi crude exports, Kpler gives more than 4 million barrels a day for the Gulf loadings alone in September after around 2.4 million in August, and on 18 Sep Reuters gave a recovery to 1 to 1.5 million for the Gulf loadings. For the loading day on 20 and 21 Sep, TankerTrackers gave seven supertankers with around 14 million barrels, Kpler six with around 12 million and MarineTraffic just under 12 million. All the surveys show the same sharp increase.	Reuters via EnergyNow 6 October 2026 (Vortexa), congress.net 6 October 2026 (Kpler Insight), Gulf News 23 September 2026, Reuters via Al Arabiya 21 September 2026
BasraPort and terminal	severely restricted	Exports partly via ship to ship transfers off Oman. In early October Iraq loaded a very large crude carrier of its own for the first time in decades and sent it through the Strait of Hormuz, and it intends to charter more. Now: around 2.6 million barrels a day from the southern ports in September (Basra Oil Company, 24 September 2026); on 3 October 2026 Iraq reported that it had moved 2 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. No new daily throughput figure is available for the first week of October.. Before: 3.4 million barrels a day. According to its director general Ali Qais Abdul Jabbar, speaking on 6 Oct, the state owned Iraqi Oil Tankers Co. wants to charter at least one very large crude carrier and one Suezmax; shortly before that it had loaded a VLCC itself for the first time in decades. A supertanker was bought in September for about USD 200 million, according to Rigzone possibly the highest price ever paid for such a vessel; an earlier tender for further ships was cancelled because the bids were inadequate. Oil Minister Basim Mohammed Khudair said the government was working on financing more vessels. The reason is the price: the benchmark route from Saudi Arabia to China reached USD 1.29 million a day, against an average below USD 30,000 in the years 2021 to 2025. According to Al Jazeera (28 Sep), around 90% of exports via the Gulf routes are blocked, and the report puts the revenue losses since the start of the war at about USD 60 billion. Iraq's OPEC plus target for November is 4.431 million barrels a day.	Rigzone 6 October 2026, Reuters via BOE Report 3 October 2026, The National 4 October 2026, Asharq Al-Awsat 24 September 2026 (Basra Oil Company), Al Jazeera 28 September 2026, OPEC 4 October 2026
Greenstream (Libya to Sicily)gas pipeline	residual flow only	The line from Mellitah to Gela is running at only a fraction of its capacity. Libya's domestic electricity demand takes priority and exports to Italy have fallen to their lowest level in more than twenty years. Now: 2025 average 105 million cubic feet a day, down 22 percent, around 14 percent of capacity. Before: capacity around 775 million cubic feet a day. The figure comes from a report on data from Libya's NOC; a primary source with 2026 figures is missing.	The Rio Times 28/08/2026, MEES 01/05/2026
South Hook LNG, Milford HavenLNG terminal (import)	Qatar terminal without Qatar	South Hook is 67 percent owned by QatarEnergy and was built specifically for Qatari gas. No Qatari cargo has arrived there since 10 April 2026, which was Qatar's last delivery to Europe of any kind. The terminal with the heaviest single dependency is thus the hardest hit. Now: last Qatari delivery to Europe on 10/04/2026, QatarEnergy's force majeure extended to early November 2026. Before: designed for 15.6 million tonnes a year, around 20 percent of British gas demand. How much the terminal has handled from other sources since then has not been made public. The assessment rests on the absence of the main contractual source, not on a reported shutdown.	Cedigaz 23/04/2026, Euronews 31/08/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Suez CanalCanal	disrupted	Open, and traffic is recovering, though it remains far below the record year of 2023. On 4 Oct Prime Minister Madbouly put the current revenue level at around USD 4.4 billion a year, against around 10 billion before the disruption; the 2025/26 financial year brought in 4.67 billion. Now: 278 transits in the week from 21 to 27 September 2026, after 295 the week before, four week average 287 (Lloyd's List Intelligence, 1 October 2026). Before: Suez and SUMED together 4.9 million barrels a day. In August 2026, 1,358 vessels passed through the canal, 27% more than in August 2025; revenue came to USD 567.1 million against 326 million in August 2025 (Suez Canal Authority). The 2025/26 financial year brought in USD 4.67 billion, 23% more than the year before; the record year of 2023 stood at 10.25 billion. Crude tankers passed through the canal 53 times in the week to 27 Sep with 6.7 million tonnes of deadweight, the lowest tonnage since mid July. No new return announcement from a shipping line came in the first week of October.	Lloyd's List Intelligence 1 October 2026, Rio Times 5 October 2026 (Suez Canal Authority, Prime Minister Madbouly), EIA
Panama CanalCanal	disrupted (drought)	Because of an El Niño drought the canal authority is letting fewer ships through and limiting draught. This has nothing to do with the Middle East conflict. Now: 33 transits a day, ten of them in the Neopanamax locks from 15 October 2026; maximum permitted draught there 14.94 metres since 28 September 2026; water level of Gatun Lake 85.1 feet on 6 October 2026 (canal authority). Before: 36 a day normally, 2.3 million barrels a day. The Canal Authority justifies the easing with rainfall close to the long term average and with water saving measures, but notes that the catchment area remains in water deficit and that reservations will still be required. The increase in draught applies immediately, while the tenth Neopanamax transit only comes from 15 October 2026. The five year range of monthly readings for Gatun Lake runs from 83.7 feet in April to 87.2 feet in December.	Panama Canal Authority 28 September 2026 and Gatun Water Indicators 6 October 2026, Rio Times, EIA
East-West Pipeline (Abqaiq to Yanbu)Pipeline	running again, around 80% of capacity	The line has been pumping again since 22 Sep and, according to the Saudi energy minister, is close to its design rate. It had been shut down since mid September after drone strikes on pumping stations. It is the most important route for bringing Saudi oil to the Red Sea bypassing Hormuz. Now: 5.8 million barrels a day on 6 October 2026, against a capacity of 7 million (Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman via Al Jazeera and Reuters, 6 October 2026). Before: capacity 7 million barrels a day, around 1.5 million of it for domestic refineries; before the outage around 5.5 million throughput, of which 4.5 million for export (Kpler, 17 Sep); only 2 million a day in August 2026, the lowest reading since January (Kpler). Figures: Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman via Al Jazeera, 6 Oct: 5.8 million barrels a day; Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser via The National, 5 Oct: around 80% of capacity, and the system is intact; Kpler Insight via congress.net, 6 Oct: close to 5.5 million barrels a day, around 4 million of it available for export via Yanbu; The Arabian Post, 3 Oct: just under 6 million barrels a day, more than 80% of capacity; Kpler via Reuters, 29 Sep: around 2.65 million barrels a day. The rating changes in this round from severely restricted to disrupted, because the Saudi energy minister and Aramco agree in giving a throughput close to the design rate and Kpler, as an independent ship tracker, arrives at close to 5.5 million barrels a day. The first two figures come from the operator side. On 6 Oct in Manama the energy minister said the line had been in use again within five or six days of the attack. There is no statement on the repair status of the individual pumping stations for the first week of October; three of eleven stations were damaged. On 5 Oct Aramco chief executive Nasser said that without the line the oil price could have reached USD 200 a barrel, and he called global stocks frighteningly thin; refilling them would take up to two years after an opening of Hormuz. The date of the strike remains disputed: Bloomberg and Rigzone give 10 Sep, CNN and Business Standard 11 Sep, Arab News 13 Sep. Saudi Arabia blames militias close to Iran in Iraq; no one has claimed responsibility.	Al Jazeera 6 October 2026 (energy minister, Reuters, Kpler), The National 5 October 2026 (Aramco), congress.net 6 October 2026 (Kpler Insight), The Arabian Post 3 October 2026, Reuters via Marine Link 29 September 2026
SUMED pipelinePipeline	running, supply at risk	Brings oil from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean. With the restart of the East-West pipeline, Saudi supply is flowing again. Now: loading has been going on again at Sidi Kerir since 22 Sep; no volume figure is available for the first week of October (Reuters, 29 September 2026). Before: capacity 2.5 million barrels a day. The volume figures diverge: on 17 Sep Rio Times gave about 1.9 million barrels a day for the whole line, on 24 Sep Reuters gave about 2.3 million barrels a day for Saudi crude via Sidi Kerir alone, and Kpler via Ahram Online gave 2.139 million barrels a day via Sidi Kerir for August. Traders moved tankers to Port Said for transfers and to Sidi Kerir for Saudi cargoes.	Reuters via Marine Link 29 September 2026, Ahram Online 8 September 2026 (Kpler), Rio Times 17 September 2026, Reuters via EnterpriseAM 24 September 2026
Kirkuk–CeyhanPipeline	sharply throttled	Running at a low level. The agreement with Turkey was extended by one year on 1 Aug. Since 16 Sep Iraq has additionally been trucking crude from Basra to Kirkuk in order to export it via Ceyhan, bypassing Hormuz. Now: last measured throughput 120 to 135 thousand barrels a day (mid August); no figure is available for the first week of October. Before: around 300 thousand barrels a day in July. The figures contradict each other. On 28 Sep Al Jazeera gives an agreement covering 750 thousand barrels a day, while in August Shafaq News gave an actual throughput of 120 to 135 thousand. In addition, according to the head of the Basra Oil Company on 24 Sep, Iraq wants to truck 250 thousand barrels a day of Basra crude to Kirkuk and export it via Ceyhan; the pilot operation began on 16 Sep, and there is no evidence that the volume is being reached. In early September Rudaw gave 180 thousand barrels a day for the route in total, 150 thousand of it from the Kurdistan Region.	Asharq Al-Awsat 24 September 2026 (Basra Oil Company), Al Jazeera 28 September 2026, Rudaw 5 September 2026, Shafaq News 13 August 2026
CPC pipeline to NovorossiyskPipeline	disrupted, recovering	After attacks on tankers in the Black Sea in July, loadings rose markedly again in August. Across the year as a whole, however, the volume is below the previous year. No attack was reported in the first week of October. Now: almost 50 million tonnes through the marine terminal from 1 January to 25 September 2026, equivalent to around 1.37 million barrels a day as an annual average (own calculation from the figure given by the CPC press service via Trend.Az, 30 September 2026). Before: 1.32 million barrels a day in July. The almost 50 million tonnes were loaded onto 397 tankers, 4 million tonnes less than in the same period a year earlier, which took 453 tankers. For September Reuters expected around 1.5 million barrels a day. The CPC press service cites as reasons for the decline the consequences of the 2025 incident at a single point mooring, lower deliveries from Tengizchevroil in the first quarter, longer danger warnings in the Novorossiysk area and more days with weather unsuitable for loading. The maintenance at the Karachaganak field ran from 7 September to 1 October 2026 and cost 400 to 450 thousand tonnes of oil and gas condensate; no report of the restart is available. Kazakhstan cut its 2026 annual target from 98 to 96 million tonnes. More than 80% of Kazakh exports run through the CPC; in 2025, according to the Kazakh statistics office, that was 64.8 of 76.3 million tonnes. We did not find a loading plan for October, and no attack on the terminal was reported in the first week of October.	Trend.Az 30 September 2026 (CPC press service), Astana Times 6 October 2026 (Bureau of National Statistics), Times of Central Asia 16 September 2026, Pipeline & Gas Journal 14 September 2026
FujairahPort and terminal	loading, risk of attack	End point of the ADCOP pipeline, already outside Hormuz on the Gulf of Oman. Now: see ADCOP.	Argus
YanbuPort and terminal	exports close to design rate, risk of attack	Crude exports are running again and are close to the design rate. On 1 Oct an unidentified projectile hit the Yanbu North terminal, a fire in the tank field briefly interrupted loading, and loading then continued. There is no claim of responsibility; comparable attacks were previously attributed to the Houthis. Now: around 4 million barrels a day are available for export via Yanbu, with Petroline flows close to 5.5 million (Kpler Insight via congress.net, 6 October 2026); just under 10 million barrels were loaded at Yanbu and Al Muajjiz up to 27 Sep (ESA satellite images via Reuters), and on one loading day in late September eleven tankers at the same time (Bloomberg via The Maritime Executive, 1 October 2026). Before: up to 4.5 million barrels a day of exports via the pipeline (Kpler). The rating changes in this round from severely restricted to disrupted: loading stands at around 4 million barrels a day, close to the design rate of around 4.5 million, and the attack of 1 Oct interrupted it only briefly. The time of the resumption is given differently: on 29 Sep Reuters gave 22 Sep, while The Maritime Executive writes on 1 Oct of a resumption on the Monday after 17 days of standstill, that is on 28 Sep. For November Saudi Arabia cut the price of Arab Light for Asia by USD 3 to USD 5 below the average of Oman and Dubai, the widest discount since June 2020; it cites the record freight rates as the reason. The Reuters survey had expected an increase of up to USD 5 for November. Saudi weekly loadings were at their highest level since April 2020 according to Kpler. On 25 Sep France pledged soldiers, radars and air defence for Yanbu. The Yasref refinery in Yanbu normally supplies around 200 thousand barrels of diesel a day.	congress.net 6 October 2026 (Kpler Insight), The Maritime Executive 1 October 2026 (Bloomberg, Vanguard Tech), Marine Insight 3 October 2026, Reuters via Marine Link 29 September 2026, EnergyNow 5 October 2026 (Reuters), Al Jazeera 25 September 2026
Ust-Luga and PrimorskPort and terminal	loading despite attacks	Ukrainian drones hit Ust-Luga on 14 Aug and 1 Sep. Russia is loading more nonetheless. The wave of attacks on refineries and tank farms inland continues and reached the approaches to Moscow overnight into 6 Oct; no attack on the port itself was reported in the first week of October. Now: Ust-Luga around 700,000 barrels per day (Reuters via Moscow Times, 1 September 2026); Russian seaborne exports 3.71 million barrels per day as a four week average to 27 September 2026 (Bloomberg via Moscow Times, 29 September 2026). Overnight into 2 Oct, as confirmed by the Ukrainian general staff, Ukrainian drones hit the Volgograd refinery, the Kaustik chemical plant and the Transneft station at Samara; the refinery's capacity is given as 14.8 million tonnes a year (Kyiv Post) to around 15 million (Kyiv Independent), and the tank farm near Samara comprises 71 tanks with more than 1.6 million cubic metres. Overnight into 6 Oct drones attacked the Transneft station at Volodarskaya, around 40 kilometres from the centre of Moscow, which supplies the region's airports through a products line; the monitoring channels Exilenova and Supernova reported two burning tanks, which the Kyiv Independent could not verify immediately. Russian officials give differing drone counts: Moscow mayor Sobyanin spoke of 650 drones heading for the region and 105 shot down near Moscow, the regional governor of 185 shot down, and the defence ministry of 868 in total; the Moscow Times reported two dead and nine injured. On 4 Oct the Ukrainian defence ministry put the loss of Russian refining capacity at more than 51%, after the general staff had given more than 45% on 21 Sep; there is no independent confirmation, and Ukraine is a party to the conflict. On 1 Oct President Putin spoke of costs amounting to around one percent of gross domestic product and, asked about the Ukrainian aim, of a partial success. On 30 Sep Russia extended its diesel export ban for producers to 31 Oct; for traders it runs until January, for petrol until the end of January 2027 and for jet fuel until the end of November. On 2 Oct Deputy Prime Minister Novak said the diesel market was balanced and that a partial opening was being examined. A decree of 28 Sep bans the publication of refinery and export data unless the companies disclose it themselves; that makes independent figures harder to obtain.	Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent 2 October 2026, Kyiv Independent 4 October 2026, AP via PBS NewsHour 5 October 2026, Kyiv Independent, Euromaidan Press and Moscow Times 6 October 2026, Meduza 1 October 2026, Moscow Times 30 September and 2 October 2026, Kyiv Independent 28 September 2026, Bloomberg via Moscow Times 29 September 2026
New York HarborPort and terminal	distillate very tight	Pricing point for heating oil in the US Northeast. Heating oil and diesel come from the same distillate group and therefore move together. A diesel export ban has been off the table since 2 Oct: President Trump said it would not be done and had never been intended. Now: Heating oil in New York State USD 6.164 per gallon in the week to 28 September 2026, 65.3% above the previous year (NYSERDA); diesel in US retail USD 6.3151 per gallon nationwide and USD 6.5189 in New York (AAA, 6 October 2026); distillate stocks nationwide 105.2 million barrels, 13% below the five year average (EIA, week to 25 September 2026). Before: Heating oil in New York USD 3.72 per gallon as a monthly average in September 2025 (NYSERDA); the September 2026 average was USD 6.27. In its short term outlook of 6 October 2026 the EIA expects distillate stocks on the East Coast to stay around 20% below the 2021 to 2025 average all winter; in September they were 32% below. For the roughly 3% of US households that heat mainly with heating oil, almost all of them in the Northeast, the agency expects spending to be 21% higher in the winter of 2026/27 and heating oil prices more than 30% higher; on its own assumption a milder winter in the Northeast dampens the rise in spending. On the ban: President Trump ruled it out on 2 Oct after the G7 had agreed to release up to 100 million barrels; what is being examined instead is releasing dyed, tax exempt diesel for road use, which saves the federal tax of 24 cents per gallon. The surveys diverge: NYSERDA gives USD 6.164 for the week to 28 Sep and USD 6.27 as the September monthly average, the EIA survey gives USD 6.199 for diesel as of 5 Oct, and AAA gives USD 6.3151 as of 6 Oct. The EIA weekly report for the week to 2 Oct had still not been published as of 7 Oct. The statement that distillate stocks were 14% below the five year average comes from secondary reporting; the EIA summary gives 13%.	NYSERDA Weekly Energy and Fuels Markets Report 2 October 2026, AAA Gas Prices 6 October 2026, EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 30 September 2026, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 6 October 2026, Transport Topics 2 October 2026
Langeled and the Norwegian export networkgas pipeline	maintenance season, flows reduced	With around a third of EU gas imports, Norway is Europe's largest supplier. The annual maintenance season is running in September 2026, cutting deliveries for several weeks, and that with storage levels low. An exceptional outage is not documented. Now: seasonal maintenance cuts deliveries for several weeks (Gas Outlook, 07/09/2026). Before: pipeline exports 2025: 114.9 billion cubic metres, down 2.3 percent on the 2024 record; normally around 340 million cubic metres a day. A plan from October 2025 cited maintenance outages of 26 million cubic metres a day for September 2026. No confirmation of the actual outages is available.	Gas Outlook 07/09/2026, Argus Media 31/10/2025, Pipeline & Gas Journal January 2026 (Gassco)
Nigeria LNG, Bonny IslandLNG terminal (export)	force majeure, gas shortage	Nigeria LNG is producing but has been under force majeure continuously since 2022 because too little gas arrives from the hinterland. It will only be lifted at 90 percent utilisation. Despite the price rally the company says it serves its existing customers first. Now: utilisation 82 to 83 percent, force majeure still in force (17/09/2026). Before: six trains with 22 million tonnes a year; Train 7 is to raise this to 30 million tonnes by the end of 2027.	Ecofin Agency 17/09/2026
LNG terminal Mukran, RügenLNG terminal (import)	only one unit left	The private terminal off Rügen was Germany's strongest import point in the winter of 2025/26 with 22 terawatt hours, but it now works with one floating unit instead of two. In previous years utilisation was in the low single digits. Now: winter 2025/26: 22 terawatt hours sent out, import growth in 2026 over 70 percent. Before: capacity 412 gigawatt hours a day with two units, utilisation in 2025 only 3 percent. The capacity figure applies to operation with two units; no current operator figure for operation with one unit is available.	ingenieur.de August 2026, zfk 27/03/2025
LNG terminal DunkirkLNG terminal (import)	strike pushes send-out down	France's largest LNG terminal was hit by a nationwide energy strike on 15 September 2026 and send-out collapsed to 4 gigawatt hours a day. The timing catches Europe in the middle of filling its storage. Now: around 476 gigawatt hours a day below normal on 15/09/2026; Fos-sur-Mer and Montoir ran normally. Before: capacity 9.55 million tonnes a year, which is 13 billion cubic metres. Whether the strike continues beyond 15/09/2026 is not confirmed.	Reuters via Global Banking and Finance 15/09/2026, France 24 15/09/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
LNG terminal Montoir-de-BretagneLNG terminal (import)	Qatar contract lying idle	Montoir is running normally in technical terms. The site does, however, hold a long-term contract for 3 million tonnes of Qatari gas a year until 2035 that has not been served since the Ras Laffan outage. As a substitute, Montoir was one of the main arrival ports for Russian Yamal LNG in January 2026. Now: operating normally on 15/09/2026; six cargoes from Yamal in January 2026. Before: capacity 9.84 million tonnes a year, bookings fully allocated until 2035. That the Qatari contract is not currently being served follows from QatarEnergy's force majeure. No terminal-specific confirmation is available.	Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Reuters 15/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026
Keystone pipeline system (Hardisty to Cushing and Port Arthur)Pipeline	throttled after a leak	The system brings Canadian heavy crude to Cushing and the US Gulf Coast. Since the pipe rupture in North Dakota in April 2025 it has been running under regulatory pressure restrictions and therefore below nominal capacity. The operator expects them to be lifted in stages only between the end of 2026 and 2027. Now: second quarter of 2026: around 596,000 barrels a day, operating factor 93 percent. Before: nominal capacity 700,000 barrels a day. No new leak is documented for 2026. The throttling goes back to the incident of April 2025, in which around 3,500 barrels escaped.	South Bow quarterly report 05/08/2026, PHMSA, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Cape of Good HopeShipping route	alternative route in use	Detour around Africa for ships avoiding the Red Sea, and since the loss of Hormuz also for cargoes out of the Gulf. Traffic has doubled since the war began in February 2026. Now: traffic around the Cape has doubled since the war began in February 2026; the route costs more than 14 days of extra sailing time, around 5,000 additional miles and more than USD 1 million of fuel per voyage (analysis via Yahoo Finance, 28 September 2026). The EIA gives 19 days from the Gulf to Rotterdam via Suez against 35 around the Cape.. Before: 9.1 million barrels a day (first half of 2025).	Yahoo Finance 28 September 2026 (doubling of traffic, extra time and extra cost), U.S. EIA (volumes first half of 2025, typical voyage time), Anadolu
Habshan–Fujairah (ADCOP)Pipeline	bypass running, risk of attack	The most important bypass of Hormuz still running. Fujairah was hit by drones in March and May. Now: 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels a day (May). Before: nominal capacity 1.5 million barrels a day.	Argus, US News 04/05/2026
Arctic LNG 2, Gydan (Russia)LNG terminal (export)	sanctioned, workaround running	The project has been under US blocking sanctions since November 2023 but has been exporting systematically to China since August 2025. Novatek runs a fleet of its own for this, and volumes are growing now that the world market can absorb them after Qatar's outage. Now: 2026 to 25/08: 2.3 million tonnes in 31 deliveries to Beihai in China, a fleet of at least 18 ships. Before: three trains of 6 million tonnes planned, 19.8 million tonnes a year in total. How many trains produce permanently is not independently confirmed. The foreign shareholders have had their stakes frozen since December 2023.	Barents Observer 25/08/2026, project figures via Wikipedia 17/09/2026
LNG terminal ZeebruggeLNG terminal (import)	hub for Russian LNG	Zeebrugge is Europe's largest transshipment point for Russian LNG and took six Yamal cargoes in January 2026. Transshipment for onward carriage to third countries is banned in EU ports, while imports for consumption in the EU remain allowed until January 2027. Now: January 2026: six cargoes from Yamal, no technical disruption reported. Before: regasification capacity 9 billion cubic metres a year.	Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026, Barents Observer 25/08/2026
Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline (ESPO) to KozminoPipeline	running at full load, China's replacement barrels	Since the loss of Hormuz, Russia's Pacific route has been the key marginal barrel for Chinese and Indian refineries. Loadings at Kozmino are steady at around 1 million barrels a day. The sanctions hit tankers and trading chains above all, not the line. Now: Kozmino loading plan for September 2026: 4.0 million tonnes, around 2 percent less per day than in August. Before: main line designed for 1.6 million barrels a day, length 4,857 kilometres. Figures: Reuters, 2026: exports from Kozmino up 6 percent in seven months, China accounts for 83 percent of purchases, India 16; CREA, July 2026: ESPO makes up 74 percent of the Russian crude discharged in China, against 62 the month before; CREA, July 2026: around 62 percent of Russian seaborne crude travels on sanctioned shadow fleet tankers. A daily volume for the line alone, separate from the port loadings, is not available.	Reuters via MarineLink September 2026, Reuters via OilPrice 2026, CREA July 2026
Trans Mountain pipeline with expansionPipeline	running at full load, redirected to Asia	TMX brings crude oil from Alberta to the Pacific coast near Vancouver and has been running at full capacity for the first time since June 2026. Around two thirds of the cargoes go to Asia, with China the largest buyer. The next capacity step was brought forward because of the crisis. Now: second quarter of 2026: 840,000 barrels a day, 94 percent utilisation, 82 tankers in the quarter. Before: operating capacity 890,000 barrels a day; 703,000 barrels a day in the same quarter a year earlier. Figures: Trans Mountain, quarterly report 2026: 510,000 barrels a day through the Westridge terminal, 65 percent of tankers bound for Asia; Bloomberg, September 2026: an extra 10 percent of capacity by the end of 2026 instead of 2027 as planned.	Trans Mountain quarterly report Q2 2026, Bloomberg via EnergyConnects September 2026, Reuters 11/06/2026
Goreh-Jask pipeline to the Gulf of OmanPipeline	bypass in use, low throughput	Iran uses this line to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and loads at the Jask terminal on the Gulf of Oman. Loadings have been documented again since March 2026, but on a small scale and with long gaps. Now: first recorded exports from Jask in March 2026 at 64,600 barrels a day, at least six tanker deliveries between March and July. Before: designed for 300,000 barrels a day, planned expansion to 1 million barrels a day. Iran's total exports were 687,500 barrels a day in July 2026. A separate monthly volume for Jask is not shown within that.	S&P Global Commodity Insights 05/08/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Sunda StraitStrait	alternative route, barely used	The Sunda Strait between Sumatra and Java counts as an alternative to Malacca but carries only a fraction of the traffic in normal operation. It is deeper than Malacca and takes fully laden large tankers, but it costs time. Now: no sourced transit figure is available for 2026. Before: around 2,280 ships a year according to the commercial provider Ballast Markets, about 2.4 percent of Malacca traffic; detour 7 to 8 days. The transit figures come from a commercial provider with no identifiable primary source and no date. An increase in 2026 is not documented.	Ballast Markets (retrieved 17/09/2026), RSIS
Lombok StraitStrait	deep-water alternative route	The Lombok Strait is the deep alternative to Malacca and is used regularly by the largest tankers, for which Malacca's draught is tight. Whether it is being used more in 2026 cannot be documented with public data. Now: no reliable transit figure for 2026; a traffic service reported normal operation on 17/09/2026 but pointed to a thin data base. Before: the fairway is several hundred metres deep, whereas Malacca has a governing depth of around 25 metres. Figures: Eurasia Review, 11/05/2026: around 15,099 ships in 2023, and 21,547 elsewhere in the same text; VanEck, 2026: Malacca carried around 23.2 million barrels a day in mid-2025 and thus 29 percent of seaborne oil trade. The two ship counts for 2023 contradict each other, and an official Indonesian count for 2026 is not available.	Eurasia Review 11/05/2026, GEOPOL and ShipInfo (retrieved 17/09/2026), VanEck 2026
Strait of MalaccaStrait	running, elevated risk	No disruption reported. Far less oil is coming from the Gulf to Asia, however. Now: around 224 cargo ships a day (IMF PortWatch, 7 days to 13 September 2026); no reliable new count is available for early October. Before: 23.2 million barrels a day.	IMF PortWatch, EIA
Bosporus and DardanellesStrait	running, elevated risk	Turkey withheld permits for ships to Russia and Ukraine from 06 to 09/08; transits have been running again since. War risk insurance in the Black Sea has risen sharply. Now: transits open again since 9 August 2026; no count available for early October. Before: 3.7 million barrels a day. With circular JWLA-035 of 16 Sep the Joint War Committee in London widened the war risk area to cover practically the whole Black Sea, explicitly excluding the territorial waters of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia; Turkish Minute reported on it on 24 Sep. Revised terms from several insurers took effect on 1 October 2026. For large vessels bound for Greater Odesa around USD 25,000 a day is quoted, around USD 150,000 per voyage for six days in the area; there are no standardised premiums. Turkish imports from Russia across all goods fell to USD 1.93 billion in August 2026 from USD 3.23 billion in July; in the same report the Moscow Times mentions more than 100 damaged ships without attributing that figure to the statistics office. The risk company Ambrey counted 156 attacks on ships in Russian and Ukrainian waters between 1 Jul and 21 Sep; in the same period of 2025 there were 12.	Regulas Shipping 20 September 2026 and Beinsure 23 September 2026 (Joint War Committee), Moscow Times 1 October 2026 (Turkish statistics office via Vedomosti), Turkish Minute 24 September 2026 (Ambrey), gCaptain 9 August 2026, EIA
Danish StraitsStrait	running, elevated risk	Main route for Russian Baltic exports, including the so-called shadow fleet. No current disruption reported. Now: Russian seaborne exports 3.71 million barrels a day in the four week average to 27 Sep, 3.99 million in the single week (Bloomberg via Moscow Times, 29 September 2026); the Bloomberg reading of 6 October 2026 was not available to us. Before: 4.9 million barrels a day. On 1 October 2026 the United Kingdom added 31 new entries to its Russia sanctions list, among them six ships for carrying Russian LNG and Novatek Gas and Power Asia; no crude tankers were included. In the first week of October there was no new EU or US measure relating to oil. According to Zelensky adviser Vlasiuk, speaking on 3 Oct, the 22nd EU package will realistically not arrive before November; for October he expects around 1,600 listings, mostly from the defence sector. No detention of a tanker in the Danish straits was reported in the first week of October. The US sanctions law of 18 Sep allows measures against the shadow fleet and tariffs of up to 100% against the five largest buyers of Russian oil and gas; its application is at the president's discretion.	Bloomberg via Moscow Times 29 September 2026, UK Government Sanctions Notice Russia 1 October 2026, ua.news 3 October 2026, OFAC Recent Actions (retrieved 7 October 2026), EIA
Druzhba pipelinePipeline	running according to the latest report	The southern branch to Hungary and Slovakia has been running again since 23 April and, on a Reuters assessment in May, was back at normal levels for the first time. No reliable throughput figure is available for the period since. Now: southern branch in operation since 23 April 2026, at normal levels in May 2026; for the first week of October there is no report of changes in flows or of attacks on pumping stations.	Reuters via Kyiv Independent 3 June 2026
Rotterdam (ARA)Port and terminal	running, under strain	Europe's hub for diesel and heating oil. Stocks in Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp rose further in September but remain below the level before the war began. A gap is emerging in jet fuel for the fourth quarter. Now: gasoil 12.59 million barrels and heavy fuel oil of bunker quality 5.47 million barrels as a September average, 4% and 18% more than in August respectively (ENGINE with data from Insights Global, 2 October 2026). The entry heavy fuel oil refers to bunker quality, not the heating oil used in households; that is contained in the gasoil line. The fuel oil stock is around 51% above the May low but 15% below the February level before the war began. Fuel oil imports fell to 266 thousand barrels a day in September after 342 thousand in August, while gasoil imports rose to 197 thousand after 155 thousand. In the short term bunker supply in the ARA ports is tight, and five to seven days of lead time is recommended. The EU diesel price hit a record of EUR 2.24 per litre in the week to 30 Sep, with twelve member states at an all time high; before the escalation in February it was EUR 1.59. According to CNBC of 6 Oct, Goldman Sachs expects diesel and jet fuel margins above USD 40 a barrel in 2027, against the usual level of around 20. Energy Aspects expects a jet fuel deficit of 510 thousand barrels a day in Europe in the fourth quarter; no new figure on that is available for early October. We did not find a weekly stock report for the week to 1 Oct.	ENGINE 2 October 2026 (Insights Global), Euronews 1 October 2026 (EU Weekly Oil Bulletin), CNBC 6 October 2026 (Goldman Sachs), Airways Magazine 21 September 2026 (Energy Aspects, Kpler)
US Gulf Coast (Houston)Port and terminal	refineries running hot, reserve being tapped	US refineries are still running at high utilisation, though the weekly figure has fallen most recently. Washington ruled out a diesel export ban on 2 Oct and instead tendered another exchange of crude from the strategic reserve. Now: refinery utilisation 92.5% nationwide in the week to 25 September 2026, after 94.0% the week before; distillate exports 1.53 million barrels a day; strategic reserve 283.8 million barrels, the lowest level since October 1982 (EIA, 30 September 2026). For the Gulf Coast alone we could find no reliable utilisation figure for September and October; when retrieved, the EIA series ran only to early August. On 5 Oct the Department of Energy tendered an exchange of up to 40 million barrels from the strategic reserve, that is a release with an obligation to return the oil and not a final drawdown; bids were due on 6 Oct, with delivery in November and December from Big Hill and Bryan Mound. Rigzone cites the 172 million barrels as the US contribution to the IEA pledge of March covering 400 million barrels, without saying that this contribution is thereby exhausted. Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticised several European members for having released only a fraction of their pledges. The reserve stands at 39.7% of the authorised capacity of 714 million barrels. US crude production was 13.955 million barrels a day, and distillate demand in the four week average was 5.2% above the previous year. The EIA announced the official weekly report for the week to 2 Oct only on 7 Oct; the American Petroleum Institute estimate of 6 Oct gives 2.09 million barrels less crude and is not an EIA figure.	EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report 30 September 2026, Rigzone 5 October 2026 (US Department of Energy), Transport Topics 2 October 2026
Libya (Es Sider)Port and terminal	running, political risk	Production at its highest level in 13 years, and no port closure known in Es Sider. The line from Sharara to Zawiya, shut down by an armed group, has been flowing again since 26 Sep, and the first units of the Zawiya refinery are running. Now: Valve 7 of the Sharara to Zawiya line open again since 26 Sep, first units of the Zawiya refinery back in operation (NOC via Reuters, 27 September 2026); no new report is available for the first week of October. Before: last reported 1.49 million barrels a day (June 2026). On 25 Sep the NOC put the loss at 720,362 barrels and more than USD 75 million, while on 26 Sep The National gave more than 942,000 barrels and about USD 95 million for the whole week. The National names armed groups of the Western South Oil Facilities Guard Agency and the Western Military Zone as responsible; the background is pay demands and a dispute over the reappointment of the Waha Oil board. No port closure and no new shutdown were reported in the first week of October. The NOC's most recent production figure dates from 21 June 2026, with 1.43 million barrels of crude and 49,163 barrels of condensate a day.	NOC 25 September 2026, Reuters via Rallies 27 September 2026, Libya Observer and The National 26 September 2026, Libya Analysis 23 September 2026, Businessfront 24 June 2026 (NOC)
Nigeria (Bonny)Port and terminal	running	European refineries are buying replacements here for the missing Saudi oil. Now: 320,040 barrels a day through the Bonny terminal in August 2026 (NUPRC, 13 September 2026). In August 2026 Nigeria produced about 1.68 million barrels of crude and condensate a day in total. For the first week of October there is no new report on Bonny, on the Trans Niger pipeline or on production. European gasoline and jet fuel imports increasingly rely on Nigeria's Dangote refinery; the country's gasoline exports reached about USD 750 million in the first half of 2026.	NUPRC 13 September 2026, Billionaires Africa 25 September 2026
TurkStream with Balkan Streamgas pipeline	running, last Russian route	Since the end of Ukrainian transit on 1 January 2025, the only route for Russian pipeline gas to Europe. Volumes in 2026 are slightly above the year earlier. Drone attacks on the Russkaya compressor station and the agreed EU exit by autumn 2027 weigh on it. Now: August 2026: 51.9 million cubic metres a day, up 3 percent on August 2025. Before: designed for 31.5 billion cubic metres a year for both strings together. Whether Bulgaria will stop transit to Serbia and Hungary is disputed between Sofia, Belgrade, Budapest and the European Commission.	Pipeline & Gas Journal 03/09/2026, TASS 01/07/2026, Balkan Green Energy News 02/06/2026
Transmed (Algeria via Tunisia to Italy)gas pipeline	running, Italy's main artery	The central gas axis from Algeria to Italy and, since 2022, Italy's most important supply line. After QatarEnergy's force majeure, European governments travelled to Algiers in March 2026 to secure additional volumes. The bottleneck is not the pipe but Algerian production. Now: no published monthly volume is available for 2026. Before: nominal capacity around 33.5 billion cubic metres a year; Algeria delivered 20 billion cubic metres to Italy in 2025 in total, which is 36 percent of Italian consumption.	Carnegie Endowment 09/07/2026, Il Sole 24 Ore 2026, Ecofin Agency 21/07/2026
Medgaz (Algeria to Spain)gas pipeline	running, expansion under negotiation	Connects Beni Saf with Almería and has been Algeria's only direct gas link to Spain since the Maghreb-Europe line closed in 2021. Madrid and Algiers have been negotiating since March 2026 over up to ten percent more throughput. Now: Algerian gas covered over 29 percent of Spanish gas imports in the first two months of 2026. Before: capacity after the expansion 10 to 16 billion cubic metres a year depending on the source. The capacity figures diverge considerably according to Global Energy Monitor, and no officially confirmed figure after the expansion is available.	Pipeline & Gas Journal 26/03/2026, Carnegie Endowment 09/07/2026, Global Energy Monitor 16/09/2026
Trans Adriatic Pipeline with TANAP (Southern Gas Corridor)gas pipeline	running, first expansion stage complete	Carries Azerbaijani gas from Shah Deniz via Turkey and Greece to Italy. The first expansion stage was completed in early 2026. Despite the crisis its contribution to the EU gas mix remains small. Now: 60 billion cubic metres to Europe cumulatively since operations began, 50 of them to Italy (TAP AG, 10/07/2026). Before: initial capacity 10 billion cubic metres a year, target at least 20 by 2027; Azerbaijan delivered 11.3 billion cubic metres to the EU in 2025, which is 3.9 percent of EU gas imports. The expansion commitment sits uneasily with production trends in Azerbaijan. The doubts come from reporting, not from TAP or SOCAR.	TAP AG 10/07/2026, Caucasus Business Journal 28/06/2026, Council of the EU (2025 data)
Sabine Pass LNG, LouisianaLNG terminal (export)	largest US plant, full load	The largest liquefaction plant in the USA is running flat out in the crisis market. Cheniere loaded its 5,000th cargo here on 29 August 2026. A large share of the cargoes has gone to Europe since Qatar's outage. Now: no disruption reported; US exports averaged 17.4 billion cubic feet a day in the first half of 2026, up 23 percent. Before: nominal capacity 3.6 billion cubic feet a day, around 29.5 million tonnes a year, six trains.	U.S. EIA via LNG Industry 16/09/2026, Cheniere via Offshore Energy 31/08/2026, American Gas Association 03/09/2026
Corpus Christi LNG, TexasLNG terminal (export)	expansion complete, second-largest plant	At the end of August 2026 Cheniere reported the completion of the Stage 3 expansion with seven smaller trains. The extra volume reaches the market in exactly the half-year in which Qatar is out. Now: Stage 3 completed, no disruption reported. Before: nominal capacity 3.1 billion cubic feet a day, over 25 million tonnes a year at the site. Accounts of the completion date differ: Cheniere cites 28/08/2026, the EIA analysis 18/08/2026.	U.S. EIA via LNG Industry 16/09/2026, Cheniere via Offshore Energy 31/08/2026
Plaquemines LNG, LouisianaLNG terminal (export)	ramping up, exports increased	Venture Global's plant on the Mississippi has been ramping up since December 2024. On 14 March 2026 the US Department of Energy approved exports 13 percent higher, expressly in response to the supply gap. Phase 2 is under construction. Now: approved exports 3.85 billion cubic feet a day since 14/03/2026; around 2 million tonnes shipped in February 2026. Before: Phase 1 with 10 million tonnes a year in operation, Phase 2 with a further 10 million tonnes under construction.	US Department of Energy via Reuters March 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Golden Pass LNG, TexasLNG terminal (export)	newly on stream, Qatar in Texas	The joint project of QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil began production on 30 March 2026 and loaded its first cargo on 22 April. The most striking case of the crisis: the same group is earning in Texas while its plant at Ras Laffan is under force majeure. Now: first export cargo on 22/04/2026; first two trains at 1.4 billion cubic feet a day in 2026 according to the EIA forecast. Before: designed for 18.1 million tonnes a year, three trains.	Golden Pass LNG 30/03/2026, U.S. EIA Today in Energy
Yamal LNG, Sabetta (Russia)LNG terminal (export)	running, EU ban from 2027	Yamal LNG is not sanctioned and continues to deliver to Europe legally. In January 2026, 23 of 25 cargoes went to EU ports. The EU import ban on Russian LNG only takes effect in January 2027, and buying is being brought forward until then. Now: January 2026: 1.69 million tonnes, 92.6 percent of it to the EU, up 8 percent on the year earlier. Before: nominal capacity 17.4 million tonnes a year, four trains. Global Energy Monitor cites exports of 21.2 million tonnes for 2024, more than the nominal capacity, without explaining the difference.	gCaptain 04/02/2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Barents Observer 25/08/2026
Sakhalin 2 LNG, Prigorodnoye (Russia)LNG terminal (export)	running, US waiver until December	Sakhalin 2 is producing normally and supplies Japan above all. On 11 June 2026 the US Treasury extended the waiver for Japanese purchases to 18 December 2026, expressly citing the closure of Hormuz. Now: production 2025: 10.3 million tonnes, up 1 percent; Japan takes around 3.6 to 3.9 million tonnes a year. Before: nominally 15.0 million tonnes a year; two trains totalling 9.6 million tonnes are in operation. If the waiver expires in December, Japan will be short of volumes at short notice in an already sold-out market.	US Treasury via Oil & Gas Journal 12/06/2026, Interfax January 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
Gladstone and Curtis Island LNG, QueenslandLNG terminal (export)	full load, export quota planned	Australia is running its plants practically at the limit. In August 2026 exports were at 97.2 percent of national nominal capacity. Political headwinds loom: the government plans to reserve volumes for the domestic market. Now: August 2026: Australia 7.10 million tonnes in total in 102 cargoes; Queensland 1.95 million tonnes in 30 cargoes. Before: Gladstone LNG alone 7.8 million tonnes a year, Australia 86.0 million tonnes a year in total. On the planned 20 percent domestic reservation only a headline is available; the start and the scope are unconfirmed.	EnergyQuest August 2026, Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026
LNG terminal Wilhelmshaven 1 and 2LNG terminal (import)	high utilisation, storage empty	Wilhelmshaven is Germany's most important LNG send-out point and runs with two floating units. Together with Brunsbüttel the site sent over 25 terawatt hours into the grid in the first quarter of 2026, more than ever before in three months. It is still not enough: German storage was as low in August as at no point in at least 15 years. Now: utilisation 80 to 81 percent in 2025; German storage at 53.3 percent on 31/08/2026. Before: up to 9 billion cubic metres of grid send-out a year together. According to the transmission system operators' system analysis, all German LNG terminals together cover only around 10 percent of peak demand on the coldest days.	Deutsche Energy Terminal 2026, ingenieur.de August 2026, Serbia Energy 06/09/2026
LNG terminal BrunsbüttelLNG terminal (import)	running almost flat out	The floating unit Höegh Gannet has been sending out since spring 2023 and is the steadiest of the state terminals. In 2024 utilisation was above 80 percent, in 2025 close to full load. Now: no disruption reported (17/09/2026). Before: up to 4.0 billion cubic metres of grid send-out a year. The terminal-by-terminal utilisation figures come from an analysis of March 2025; no more recent figure for 2026 is available.	Deutsche Energy Terminal 2026, zfk 27/03/2025
Gate terminal RotterdamLNG terminal (import)	expansion to 20 billion cubic metres	North-west Europe's largest LNG entry point is being expanded with a fourth tank. Capacity is to rise from around 16 to 20 billion cubic metres a year. In January 2026 Rotterdam also took Russian Yamal cargoes. Now: expansion under construction, no disruption reported. Before: currently 14.7 million tonnes a year, which is around 16 billion cubic metres. Whether the expansion actually went into service in the third quarter of 2026 is not confirmed.	Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, gCaptain 04/02/2026
LNG terminal ŚwinoujścieLNG terminal (import)	expanded, running almost flat out	Poland raised capacity from 5 to 8.3 billion cubic metres a year in January 2025, after which utilisation was close to 90 percent. Most of the cargoes come from the USA. A second Polish unit off Gdańsk is not planned until early 2028. Now: utilisation close to 90 percent in the twelve months to April 2025; no verified figure for 2026. Before: capacity 8.3 billion cubic metres a year, previously 5 billion.	Gas Outlook 08/05/2025, LNG Prime 10/02/2026
Barcelona regasification and the Spanish networkLNG terminal (import)	largest network in Europe, reserve	Spain has Europe's largest regasification capacity but is only weakly connected by pipeline to the rest of the continent. Barcelona is the largest single plant. Compared with the rest of Europe, Spanish terminals continue to run below average. Now: El Musel was at 13.9 percent utilisation in the first quarter of 2026, the EU average at 55 percent. Before: Barcelona alone 12.6 million tonnes a year, six tanks. No reliable current total figure for Spain's regasification capacity in billion cubic metres is available.	Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, IEEFA European LNG Tracker May 2026, Enagás
Isle of Grain LNG, KentLNG terminal (import)	expanded, running in crisis mode	After the expansion, the terminal at the mouth of the Thames is one of the largest import plants in Europe. The United Kingdom is expanding its regasification capacity while its own North Sea production falls away. Now: no disruption reported; UK capacity 21.7 billion cubic metres a year, being expanded to 27. Before: base plant 14.3 million tonnes a year, 23.0 million tonnes with the expansion. Whether the expansion is fully in service could not be confirmed for September 2026.	Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026
LNG terminal RevithoussaLNG terminal (import)	south-eastern entry, slots allocated	Revithoussa off Megara is, together with Alexandroupolis, the main entry point for LNG into south-eastern Europe. From the 2026/27 gas year Bulgargaz is building up an offering of its own through the Greek infrastructure. Now: no disruption reported; Greece has 12.5 billion cubic metres of regasification capacity in total. Before: capacity 5.1 million tonnes a year, storage 370,000 cubic metres. Current throughput figures for 2026 are not available.	Global Energy Monitor 17/09/2026, Serbia Energy 06/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026
LNG terminal Krk, OmišaljLNG terminal (import)	Adriatic entry, expanded	The floating terminal off Omišalj was expanded to 6.1 billion cubic metres a year and in August 2026 took its first cargo from Hammerfest in Norway. Its value depends on whether the gas flows on northwards towards Hungary. Now: first cargo from Hammerfest in August 2026; EU storage at 65.4 percent on 31/08/2026 after around 78 percent a year earlier. Before: capacity 6.1 billion cubic metres a year. Reliable throughput figures for 2026 and the split between Croatian consumption and onward flow are not available.	Serbia Energy 06/09/2026, IEEFA May 2026
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipelinePipeline	running, volumes falling	The BTC brings Caspian oil to the Mediterranean bypassing Hormuz and the Bosporus and is not directly affected by the crisis. Volumes are falling all the same, because Azerbaijani production is declining. Kazakh oil is increasingly filling the line. Now: August 2026: 15.1 million barrels through the Turkish section, down 9.5 percent on July. Before: nominal capacity around 1.2 million barrels a day, length 1,768 kilometres. Figures: Trend.az, 17/09/2026: 15.1 million barrels of transit in August, down 9.5 percent; Reuters, July 2026: Azerbaijani exports 12.7 million tonnes in the first half, down 8.7 percent; Energy minister Bayraktar, 2026: around 600,000 barrels a day, around 400,000 barrels of capacity lying idle; AzerNews, 09/09/2026: Kazakh oil through the BTC up 12 percent in eight months. The figures are not directly comparable: Trend.az counts total transit through Turkey, Reuters only Azerbaijani crude.	Trend.az 17/09 and 11/09/2026, AzerNews 09/09/2026, Reuters July 2026, Global Energy Monitor
ESPO branch from Skovorodino to DaqingPipeline	overland route to China	The branch runs via Mohe to Daqing and delivers Russian crude straight to China, without Hormuz, without Malacca and without tankers. That is exactly why Beijing has upgraded this link strategically. Now: no publicly documented daily volume is available for 2026. Before: design capacity 600,000 barrels a day. A current, sourced throughput figure is missing for this line. The assessment rests on the design capacity and on reports about the growing role of the overland routes.	Transneft figures via Wikipedia 17/09/2026, CREA July 2026
Kazakhstan-China oil pipeline (Atyrau, Atasu, Alashankou)Pipeline	overland route to China, being expanded	The line carries Kazakh crude overland to western China and so bypasses both Hormuz and Malacca. Volumes are growing slowly, but Kazakhstan has approved an expansion by 2030. Now: January to August 2026: 13.1 million tonnes, up 2 percent on the same period a year earlier. Before: Atasu to Alashankou section in July 2026: 98,000 tonnes, down 18.3 percent on the year earlier. The two figures are not directly comparable: the first covers the whole system, the second one section and one month.	KazTransOil via Astana Times September 2026, Interfax 2026

Timeline 2026

27/01/2026 Druzhba southern branch halted After a Russian drone strike near the Brody oil hub, Ukraine declared force majeure; transit to Hungary and Slovakia came to a standstill. (Wikipedia (2026 Druzhba pipeline dispute), retrieved 17/09/2026)

28/02/2026 Iran declares Hormuz closed After the start of the US-Israeli strikes, the Revolutionary Guards warned by radio against passage; tanker traffic fell sharply according to ship tracking data. (S&P Global, 28/02/2026)

02/03/2026 Qatar halts LNG production QatarEnergy stopped LNG production after a drone strike and then declared force majeure towards its buyers. (Gulf News, 04/03/2026)

02/03/2026 Drones hit Ras Tanura Debris from intercepted drones set off a fire at the refinery, which stood idle for about a week, according to Saudi Arabia; Riyadh blames Iran, Iran denies it. (Wikipedia (2026 Aramco refinery attack), retrieved 17/09/2026)

08/03/2026 Brent above 100 dollars for the first time Brent briefly rose above 100 US dollars per barrel when trading opened on Sunday evening, for the first time in four years. (Wikipedia (2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis), retrieved 17/09/2026)

11/03/2026 Tankers attacked off Basra After attacks with explosive boats on tankers in the port of Basra, loadings at Iraq's southern terminals came to a virtual standstill; exports had previously been 3.4 million barrels a day. (The National, 16/03/2026)

12/03/2026 Pipelines bypass Hormuz The Saudi East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the Emirati ADCOP line to Fujairah became the main export routes around Hormuz. (CNBC, 12/03/2026)

13/03/2026 US strike on Kharg CENTCOM said it had hit more than 90 military targets on the island and spared the oil facilities; Iran stated that oil operations were continuing. (Wikipedia (2026 Kharg Island attack), retrieved 17/09/2026)

14/03/2026 Fujairah suspends loading Parts of the oil operations in the port of Fujairah were suspended after a drone strike and fire. (Bloomberg, 14/03/2026)

16/03/2026 Second hit within 48 hours A drone hit the Fujairah Oil Industries Zone; the fire was put out and loadings were paused while the damage was assessed. (All India Radio (newsonair), 16/03/2026)

18/03/2026 Iraq pumps Kirkuk oil to Ceyhan Iraq started exports from the Kirkuk fields through the pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, initially around 250,000 barrels a day, to replace the lost southern exports. (The National, 18/03/2026)

19/03/2026 Missiles damage Ras Laffan Iranian strikes damaged two LNG trains and a GTL plant; around 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity will be out for years, according to the report. (Fox Business, 03/2026)

08/04/2026 Two-week ceasefire agreed The USA and Iran agreed a ceasefire with safe passage under Pakistani mediation; according to ADNOC's chief executive the strait remained effectively shut the following day. (All India Radio (newsonair), 08/04/2026)

12/04/2026 East-West Pipeline back to full Saudi Arabia reported the pipeline back at around 7 million barrels a day after the attacks; according to SPA the strikes had cut throughput by about 700,000 barrels a day. (Al Jazeera, 12/04/2026)

13/04/2026 US naval blockade of Iranian ports CENTCOM began intercepting ships to and from Iranian ports; Iran's oil exports through Kharg were blocked as a result. (CENTCOM, 13/07/2026 (retrospective))

17/04/2026 Iran briefly opens Hormuz After the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, Iran's foreign minister declared the strait open and traffic partly resumed. (Al Jazeera, 11/06/2026)

18/04/2026 Iran closes Hormuz again Iran closed the strait again in response to the continuing US blockade; merchant ships came under fire. (Al Jazeera, 11/06/2026)

23/04/2026 Druzhba delivering again After around three months, oil flowed again through the Budkovce pumping station to Slovakia and Hungary. (CNN, 22/04/2026)

04/05/2026 Drone hits VTTI terminal A drone strike started a major fire at VTTI's oil terminal in Fujairah and three people were taken to hospital; Fujairah's authorities spoke of an Iranian drone. (Offshore Technology, 05/05/2026)

17/06/2026 Memorandum ends the war for now Trump and Pezeshkian signed a memorandum to end the war; the strait opened and the ceasefire was extended by 60 days. (Axios, 20/06/2026)

18/06/2026 USA lift the blockade CENTCOM ended the naval blockade of Iranian ports after the memorandum was signed. (CENTCOM, 13/07/2026 (retrospective))

20/06/2026 Iran announces another closure Iran's armed forces declared Hormuz closed because of Israeli strikes in Lebanon; CENTCOM reported 55 merchant ships in transit the same day. (Axios, 20/06/2026)

01/07/2026 Qatar's force majeure extended QatarEnergy extended the force majeure towards Edison until mid-September; 17% of capacity will stay offline for years, according to AGBI. (AGBI, 07/2026)

11/07/2026 Revolutionary Guards close Hormuz After the ceasefire collapsed on 08/07, the navy of the Revolutionary Guards declared the strait closed. (Al Jazeera (live blog), 11/07/2026)

14/07/2026 US blockade back in force CENTCOM put the blockade on ships to and from Iranian ports back in force from 14/07, 4 p.m. US Eastern Time; Iran declared the memorandum void. (CENTCOM, 13/07/2026)

20/07/2026 Houthis impose a shipping ban on the Saudis Houthi spokesman Saree announced an immediate ban on Saudi shipping without naming an enforcement area; ships under other flags are not covered. (Xinhua, 20/07/2026)

20/07/2026 CPC halts loading After drone hits on tankers at the buoys, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended loading and from 21/07 stopped accepting Kazakh oil. (Times of Central Asia, 2026)

23/07/2026 Attack on Saudi tankers The Houthis said they had attacked two Saudi tankers; Brent closed at 100.69 dollars, back above 100 for the first time since May. (Reuters via Euronext, 23/07/2026)

25/07/2026 Houthis report hits in Jizan The Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu; satellite data showed fires in Jizan, Riyadh officially confirmed no damage. (Türkiye Today, 25/07/2026)

27/07/2026 CPC loading again After a week's standstill, loading resumed at two buoys; attacks on 30/07 briefly interrupted it again. (Times of Central Asia, 2026)

29/07/2026 Drone hits the port of Damietta A drone hit two gas carriers in the Egyptian Mediterranean port near the Suez Canal; the USA blames Iran, Iran's foreign ministry denies it. (Wikipedia (2026 Damietta drone strike), retrieved 17/09/2026)

06/08/2026 Turkey holds back Black Sea transits The Turkish coastal safety authority temporarily stopped issuing transit permits for voyages to Russian and Ukrainian ports. (gCaptain, 09/08/2026)

09/08/2026 Straits passable again A crude oil tanker and a container ship passed the Dardanelles and Turkey resumed the transits. (gCaptain, 09/08/2026)

09/08/2026 Fire at the Aramco refinery in Jizan Saudi Arabia reported a fire that had been put out without giving a cause; the Houthis said they had hit the refinery with a drone. (Al Jazeera, 09/08/2026)

12/08/2026 Deadly attack in the Bab el-Mandeb The Houthis attacked a merchant ship in the Bab el-Mandeb; six people died, according to the Yemeni government. (Al Jazeera, 12/08/2026)

13/08/2026 Kirkuk exports sharply throttled Exports through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline fell to around 120,000 to 135,000 barrels a day, after around 300,000 in July. (Shafaq News, 13/08/2026)

14/08/2026 Drones set Ust-Luga on fire A fire broke out at the Baltic port after a Ukrainian drone strike; according to governor Drozdenko nobody was injured, and he gave no figures on the damage. (The Moscow Times, 14/08/2026)

27/08/2026 Basra loads outside Hormuz Iraq's marketing company SOMO offered Basra crude for loading outside Hormuz, among other things via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman. (Zawya, 27/08/2026)

01/09/2026 Second attack on Ust-Luga According to the governor, air defences intercepted 52 drones; a fire at the port was out by 9:30 a.m. Moscow time. (The Moscow Times, 01/09/2026)

03/09/2026 Dispute over transit figures US officials cited up to 40 ships a day, while trackers such as Kpler counted 5 to 11 and Lloyd's List around 12 transits a day. (Al Jazeera, 03/09/2026)

03/09/2026 Panama cuts transits because of drought The canal authority lowered daily transits from 36 to 34 and on 02/09 cut the draught for the largest ships to 14.63 metres. (The Rio Times, 09/2026)

07/09/2026 Jizan hit for the third time The Jizan refinery was attacked for the third time in two months, according to insider reports; no export cargo left Jizan in August, the report said. (OilPrice.com, 07/09/2026)

10/09/2026 Houthis take Mokha The Houthis captured the Red Sea port city of Mokha, their largest territorial gain in years. (Al Jazeera, 10/09/2026)

11/09/2026 East-West Pipeline shut down Saudi Arabia shut the line down as a precaution after drone hits; Riyadh names Iraq as the launch site, Baghdad confirmed Maysan province on 13/09, nobody has claimed responsibility. (CNN, 11/09/2026)

11/09/2026 Houthis take Dhubab and Perim According to Asharq Al-Awsat the Houthis occupied the Dhubab district and the island of Mayun (Perim) in the Bab el-Mandeb; there is no formal closure of the strait. (Asharq Al-Awsat, 09/2026)

14/09/2026 Hanish Islands fall to the Houthis After pro-government forces withdrew, the Houthis took over Greater and Lesser Hanish north of the strait. (Euronews, 14/09/2026)

15/09/2026 Panama cuts to 32 transits The canal authority further reduced daily transits to 32 and Panamax slots to 23. (The Rio Times, 09/2026)

17/09/2026 Partial restart announced Saudi Arabia intends to restore half the pipeline capacity within days and full capacity within six weeks, according to reports; Brent fell to around 103 dollars. (Trading Economics, 17/09/2026)

17/09/2026 Assessment of 17/09 From here the map shows the editorial assessment of 17/09/2026. For each point it relies on the most recent source available, which is named in the detail panel. (globaloilshock.com, 17/09/2026)

17/09/2026 Drones hit Yaroslavl refinery Ukrainian drones set the Slavneft-YANOS refinery in Yaroslavl on fire, capacity around 300,000 barrels a day. The governor confirmed damage. (The Moscow Times, 17/09/2026)

17/09/2026 Dispute over the transits at Bab al-Mandab Reuters counted 21 transits on 16/09. Middle East Monitor cited IMF PortWatch and gave 4 vessels in the preceding 24 hours, so for largely the same period. The same data source is quoted elsewhere with 31 transits on 13/09. The figures cannot be reconciled. (Reuters via Arab Times and Middle East Monitor, 17/09/2026)

18/09/2026 IEA puts a number on the shortfall 7.6 million barrels a day flowed through the Strait of Hormuz in August, 13.1 million less than before the war. Since the war began, lost exports have risen to almost 2.8 billion barrels. (IEA, 18/09/2026)

18/09/2026 US sanctions law signed President Trump on Friday signed a law allowing tariffs of up to 100 percent on the five biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas, as well as measures against the shadow fleet. Its application is at his discretion. (Al Jazeera, 19/09/2026)

19/09/2026 CENTCOM reports six-month high Admiral Brad Cooper said the US military had escorted the transport of 1 billion barrels within two months. Volumes of oil, gas and cargo over the past two weeks were the highest in six months. Iran had exported zero barrels, he said. The US military is a party to the conflict. (Fortune, 19/09/2026)

19/09/2026 Houthis attack Riyadh and Yanbu The Houthis claimed attacks on Riyadh as well as on Bisha, Taif, Farasan and Aramco facilities in Yanbu. The Saudi led coalition reported intercepting a ballistic missile aimed at Riyadh, and the authorities reported no casualties and no damage. Residents, by contrast, described an explosion and a column of black smoke over a tank farm at King Khalid airport. (Al Jazeera, 19/09/2026)

20/09/2026 Moscow refinery hit Both crude distillation units at Gazprom Neft’s Moscow refinery were on fire and processing was halted. From 21/09 the plant stopped offering fuel on the exchange. (Kyiv Post, 22/09/2026)

21/09/2026 Record loadings at Ras Tanura On a single loading day over the weekend, seven supertankers loaded around 14 million barrels, according to TankerTrackers; MarineTraffic counts six supertankers with just under 12 million barrels for the same day. Gulf loadings have averaged 3.7 million barrels a day since 12/09, against 2.9 million before. Around 60 million barrels were diverted to ship to ship transfers off Sohar. (Reuters via Al Arabiya, 21/09/2026)

21/09/2026 Tanker hit by projectile The British flagged tanker La Stephanie was hit by a projectile as it entered the Strait of Hormuz, and two crew members were slightly injured. A second vessel was hit by debris. Both continued under their own power. (UKMTO via Al Arabiya, 21/09/2026)

21/09/2026 Qatar: 17 percent of LNG capacity down QatarEnergy chief executive Saad al-Kaabi said the damage at the Ras Laffan complex had shut down around 17 percent of Qatari LNG capacity. Two plants would need up to three years of repairs. (QatarEnergy via Tradingpedia, 21/09/2026)

21/09/2026 Houthi offensive on Taiz CNN reported on 21/09 on a major Houthi offensive under way on the Taiz region and growing pressure on the province of Marib. Bab al-Mandab remained under their control. (CNN, 21/09/2026)

22/09/2026 East-West Pipeline restarts According to Reuters, the line has been pumping again since 22/09, initially at a low rate. A security source cites 40 percent of capacity within a few days and six to eight weeks to a full restart. Three of eleven pumping stations were damaged. In Yanbu, loadings were due to resume the same day. Aramco did not comment. (Reuters via Arab News, 22/09/2026)

22/09/2026 Iran signals reopening According to reports by Reuters and Kyodo, Iran offered to reopen the strait within seven days if the United States eased military pressure. The Iranian agency Fars dismissed the reports as unreliable. US Secretary of State Rubio said he was open to a meeting. (Euronews, 22/09/2026)

22/09/2026 Washington weighs diesel export ban President Trump came out in favour of a ban on US diesel exports. Treasury Secretary Bessent said the administration was reviewing a full or partial ban. The American Petroleum Institute warned that a ban would make the problem bigger. (Axios, 22/09/2026)

22/09/2026 Iraq corrects the export figures The oil ministry clarified that exports in September are averaging around 2.6 million barrels a day. The 4 million in circulation referred to a single export day. (Iraq Business News, 22/09/2026)

22/09/2026 Suez Canal reports more traffic The Suez Canal Authority gave 1,358 transits for August, 27 percent more than a year earlier, or around 44 ships a day. On 22/09 the OOCL Portugal became the first COSCO vessel to transit the canal southbound since the start of the Red Sea crisis. (Suez Canal Authority via Cyprus Shipping News, 22/09/2026)

24/09/2026 Houthi missiles on Yanbu and Riyadh intercepted The Saudi led coalition said it shot down six ballistic missiles, two of them with a Greek Patriot system. The Houthis named a site in Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu as targets. There were alerts for Taif, Mecca, Jeddah and Tabuk as well. The authorities reported no casualties and no damage to the oil facilities. (Al Jazeera, 24 September 2026)

25/09/2026 France pledges air defence for Yanbu President Macron announced soldiers, radars and defence systems for Yanbu. The day before, on 24 Sep, Brent had risen during trading to more than USD 108 after the Houthi attacks; on 25 Sep the price fell back again. Accounts of the closing price on 25 Sep differ: EnergyNow gives USD 104.32, The National 104.30 and Al Jazeera 105.77. (Al Jazeera, 25 September 2026)

26/09/2026 Trump rejects Iran's seven day plan On 25 Sep, at the UN General Assembly, Iran presented a roadmap: first the frozen funds, the oil sanctions and the blockade, then the opening of the Strait of Hormuz within seven days. President Trump rejected the offer. On 27 Sep Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran was sticking to its conditions and waiting for an official answer through mediators. The channel of talks via Qatar, Oman and the UN is not closed. (CBS News 26 September 2026, Al Jazeera 28 September 2026)

26/09/2026 Ilsky refinery on fire after drone attack The Ilski refinery in the Krasnodar region, with an annual capacity of 6.6 million tonnes, halted operations after a drone attack. According to the Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point, three distillation units and a tank farm were damaged. The Russian defence ministry reported 645 drones intercepted the same night. According to Kyiv Independent the plant had been hit at least 16 times up to June 2026. (Kyiv Independent, 26 September 2026)

26/09/2026 Libya: Sharara to Zawiya line down for five days An armed group closed valve 7 of the crude line from Sharara to Zawiya. On 25 Sep the NOC put the loss at 720,362 barrels and more than USD 75 million, while on 26 Sep The National gave more than 942,000 barrels and about USD 95 million for the whole week. The Zawiya refinery, with a capacity of 120 thousand barrels, shut down one processing unit. Late on 26 Sep the valve was opened again. Es Sider was not affected. (Libya Observer 26 September 2026, The National 26 September 2026, Quantum Commodity Intelligence 27 September 2026)

28/09/2026 East-West pipeline at least at half capacity According to Bloomberg the pipeline reached at least 3.5 million barrels per day, about half of its capacity of 7 million and around two thirds of the throughput of around 5.5 million before the attack. On 29 Sep Kpler estimated throughput at around 2.65 million barrels per day and expects 3 to 4 million in the following days; two trading sources gave around 2 million for the loadings at Yanbu. According to Bloomberg a full restart can take around six weeks. Aramco and the energy ministry are not commenting. (Bloomberg via Rigzone 28 September 2026, Reuters via Marine Link 29 September 2026)

28/09/2026 Qatar extends the force majeure again QatarEnergy extended force majeure for LNG deliveries into November, and for the Italian company Edison to the beginning of December. Buyers in Pakistan, Bangladesh and at least one buyer in India are also affected. According to The National, LNG prices in Europe and Asia rose to their highest level since the end of 2022. (The National, 28 September 2026)

28/09/2026 Kpler: highest Middle East exports since the war began The Middle East exported 12.8 million barrels per day in September, the highest figure since the war began. An average of 7.4 million barrels per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in September; in the week to 27 Sep 19 tankers went through, 17 of them supertankers. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, by contrast, gave 15 to 22 million barrels per day and put Iranian oil at sea at around 15 million barrels; he belongs to a party to the conflict. (Al Jazeera, 28 September 2026)

28/09/2026 Iraq looks for routes around Hormuz According to Al Jazeera Iraqi exports stand at around 2.5 million barrels per day against 3.5 million before the crisis, and around 90 percent of the Gulf routes are blocked. The pipeline to Ceyhan was designed for 750,000 barrels per day, and around 250,000 barrels per day are additionally carried by truck from Basra to Kirkuk; according to the Basra Oil Company pilot operation began on 16 Sep. On 24 Sep the same company gave around 2.6 million barrels per day from the southern ports, which is a different reference figure from total exports. Al Jazeera puts the revenue losses since the war began at around USD 60 billion. (Al Jazeera 28 September 2026, Asharq Al-Awsat 24 September 2026 (Basra Oil Company))

28/09/2026 Panama Canal lets more ships through again The Canal Authority raised the maximum permitted draught in the Neopanamax locks from 14.63 to 14.94 metres with immediate effect and announced that daily transits will increase from 32 to 33 from 15 Oct. The reason given was rainfall close to the long term average and water saving measures. According to the authority the catchment area remains in water deficit. In normal operation there are 36 transits per day. (Panama Canal Authority, 28 September 2026)

28/09/2026 Putin restricts refinery and export data A decree bans publishing refinery, export, buyer and route data unless the company discloses it itself; the government has ten days to draw up the product list. According to Reuters, this would make sanctions harder to enforce. It also makes independent figures on refinery outages harder to obtain. (Kyiv Independent, 28 September 2026)

29/09/2026 Diesel export ban remains open Nothing has been decided. On 23 Sep Energy Secretary Chris Wright said a ban would not work. On 26 Sep the White House signalled to Senator Ted Cruz that it was not coming. On 27 Sep President Trump called it very seriously under consideration. On 28 Sep the White House said three routes short of a ban were being examined: voluntary limits by producers, a suspension of the federal tax on diesel, and measures by the states. The Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable had warned in writing on 24 Sep. (Yahoo Finance 28 September 2026, Bloomberg 26 and 29 September 2026, CNBC 24 September 2026)

29/09/2026 Russian seaborne exports at a two month high Russian seaborne crude exports stood at 3.71 million barrels a day in the four week average to 27 Sep, the highest level since the beginning of August; in the single week they were 3.99 million. Bloomberg puts the revenues at USD 2.75 billion for that week. The diesel export ban limits the gain from the higher prices. (Bloomberg via Moscow Times, 29 September 2026)

29/09/2026 Iran warns no infrastructure will remain safe Parliament speaker and chief negotiator Ghalibaf: if Iran cannot sell oil, nobody in the region will sell oil, or, without security for Iran no infrastructure will remain secure. The Revolutionary Guards spokesman called the strait closed and rejected the US account that it is open. (Times of Israel, 29 September 2026)

29/09/2026 Coalition reports attack in Medina, Houthis deny it According to the Saudi-led coalition, an attack on a substation in Medina knocked out a transformer while the grid stayed intact; drone debris, it said, showed Houthi involvement. The Houthis call this a lie. Al Jazeera could not verify the incident independently. (Al Jazeera, 1 October 2026)

30/09/2026 Brent switches to the December contract The November contract for Brent expired on 30 Sep. It was quoted at 103.19 US dollars on 29 Sep, and the December contract at 96.31 US dollars on the same day. The jump of about seven dollars in the usual price displays is the change of delivery month, not a price slump. The forward curve is steeply backwardated; on 28 Sep the front spread was more than seven dollars a barrel according to DTN. (ICE Futures Europe (expiry calendar), oilprice.com 29 September 2026, DTN 28 September 2026)

30/09/2026 Russia extends its diesel export ban to the end of October The government extended the diesel export ban for producers until 31 October; for non-producers it runs until January, petrol exports are banned outright until January and jet fuel until November. It cites domestic supply during the harvest season and shortages after Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries. (The Moscow Times, 30 September 2026)

30/09/2026 US reply to Iran's plan delivered via Qatar The formal US reply to the Iranian seven-day plan reached Tehran via Qatar. Its content has not been officially published. (Gulf News, 30 September 2026)

30/09/2026 Riyadh announces a firm response Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told the Shura Council that the kingdom would respond firmly to any threat. He pointed to a multinational defensive maritime coalition to protect sea lanes and to the defence agreement with Turkey and Pakistan. (Al Jazeera, 30 September 2026)

01/10/2026 Brent rises to USD 102.31 The December contract settled at USD 102.31, up 4.37 percent. Citing four insiders, Reuters reported that Chinese refiners have suspended exports of refined products, except to Hong Kong and Macau, until further notice; there is no official confirmation. Dawn names a Wall Street Journal report about a third US aircraft carrier as a further driver. (Reuters via Dawn, 1 October 2026)

01/10/2026 Another tanker hit in Hormuz According to the British UKMTO, a tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz by an unidentified projectile and caught fire; the crew was unhurt. The agency did not name a perpetrator. (Asharq Al-Awsat, 2 October 2026)

01/10/2026 Trump leaves strikes after the midterm elections open President Trump said he had to decide between attacking Iran and making a deal; he left open a resumption of bombing after the congressional elections on 3 November. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group has been under way since 27 Sep and is expected to arrive between the end of October and the end of November. (Gulf News, 2 October 2026)

01/10/2026 Putin puts a figure on refinery damage At the Valdai forum, President Putin estimated the cost of the Ukrainian attacks on refineries at about one percent of GDP. Diesel cannot reach the world market because of sanctions, he said; for producers, Russia itself has banned exports until the end of October. (Meduza, 1 October 2026; The Moscow Times, 30 September 2026)

01/10/2026 Attack on Khamis Mushait and Jazan According to the Saudi-led coalition, four drones and two ballistic missiles were intercepted. Debris damaged buildings and cars in Khamis Mushait; there were no casualties. According to Al Jazeera, the Houthis hold sections of the Red Sea coast but have not so far taken the heights above the Bab el-Mandeb. (Arab News, 1 October 2026; Al Jazeera, 1 October 2026)

01/10/2026 Projectile hits the Yanbu North terminal An unidentified projectile struck inside the port area, a fire broke out in the tank field of Aramco's Yanbu North terminal, loading was briefly halted and then resumed. The security firm Vanguard Tech confirmed the hit, and no claim of responsibility has been made; comparable attacks were previously attributed to the Houthis. On one loading day in late September, Bloomberg data show eleven tankers being loaded at the same time. (The Maritime Executive, 1 October 2026 (Vanguard Tech, Bloomberg); Marine Insight, 3 October 2026)

01/10/2026 EU diesel at a record of EUR 2.24 In the week to 30 September diesel cost EUR 2.24 per litre on average across the EU, one cent more than the week before and more than ever. Twelve member states stood at an all time high. Before the escalation in February 2026 it was EUR 1.59. Denmark, the Netherlands and Finland were above EUR 2.50, and Germany was at EUR 2.44. (EU Weekly Oil Bulletin via Euronews, 1 October 2026)

02/10/2026 Drones hit Volgograd and Samara Overnight, according to Meduza, Ukrainian drones hit the Volgograd refinery, the Kaustik chemical plant and a Transneft facility with a tank farm near Samara. The governor of Volgograd spoke of a massive drone attack on industrial infrastructure; the fires are documented only by eyewitness videos and have not been officially confirmed. (Meduza, 2 October 2026)

02/10/2026 G7 release 100 million barrels The G7 decided to release 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel through the IEA, starting immediately and spread over four months, with a substantial diesel share in the first 20 days. This followed the US demand for at least 100 million barrels of diesel from Europe and the threat of a US export ban, which the European Commission rejected; whether the threat still stands is unclear. The European diesel future then fell by 8 percent during the day (as of 16:25). (The Irish Times, 2 October 2026)

02/10/2026 Trump rules out the diesel export ban After the G7 decision President Trump said Europe had plenty of diesel and would make a contribution, that the export ban would not be imposed and that it had never been intended. What is being examined instead is releasing dyed, tax exempt diesel for road use. (Transport Topics, 2 October 2026)

02/10/2026 Drones hit Volgograd and the Samara tank farm The Ukrainian general staff confirmed hits on the Volgograd refinery, the Kaustik chemical plant and the Transneft station at Samara. The refinery's capacity is given as 14.8 to 15 million tonnes a year, and the tank farm near Samara comprises 71 tanks with more than 1.6 million cubic metres. Russia reported 646 drones intercepted over 14 regions. (Kyiv Post and Kyiv Independent, 2 October 2026)

03/10/2026 Iraq reports 2 million barrels through Hormuz Iraq announced that it had moved 2 million barrels of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. On 4 October it arranged a tanker of its own for the purpose for the first time in decades. (Reuters via BOE Report, 3 October 2026; The National, 4 October 2026)

04/10/2026 Iran names seven conditions for an opening Parliament speaker Ghalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz would not be opened until seven Iranian conditions were met, and that the time of stalling and one sided demands was over. Foreign Minister Araghchi said an opening within seven days was possible if Washington accepted the Iranian proposal, and stated that Iran was better prepared than before should it come to military action again. The wording of the seven conditions has not been published. (Arab News and Al Jazeera, 4 October 2026)

04/10/2026 OPEC plus leaves the November targets unchanged The seven core countries decided to keep September's targets for November as well, the third month in a row. According to the OPEC secretariat's table the total comes to 30.61 million barrels a day, while other accounts give 31.01 million. According to Reuters and The National, most members are producing below their quotas because of the war. The next meeting of the seven is on 1 November 2026. (OPEC, 4 October 2026; Rigzone, 5 October 2026)

04/10/2026 Ground offensive at Bab al-Mandab The chairman of Yemen's presidential council, al-Alimi, announced the Yemen Dawn offensive. On 5 October government troops reported the capture of Dhubab district with its airport and of the port city of Mokha, as well as control of the strait; the Saudi-led coalition gave 100 fighter jets in continuous operation and 324 destroyed targets. According to Al Jazeera the Houthis dispute the claims, and according to The National they have not confirmed them; none of it can be verified independently. On 6 October Euronews reported that the Houthis had taken Turbah on the road from Taiz to Aden on 4 October. (Al Arabiya and The National, 5 October 2026; Euronews, 6 October 2026)

05/10/2026 Iran loaded no crude in September According to Kpler not a single crude cargo left Iran in September 2026, a first since records began in 2013; the last loading was the Suezmax Sarak at Kharg Island on 25 August. Vortexa and Bloomberg likewise give zero or practically zero. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad resigned, and the acting successor is Hamid Bovard, who announced that he would maximise production. (Kpler Insight via congress.net, 6 October 2026; Rigzone and The National, 5 October 2026)

05/10/2026 Aramco cuts its prices for Asia For November Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light for Asia by USD 3 to USD 5 below the average of Oman and Dubai, the widest discount since June 2020. Arab Medium and Arab Heavy were cut by USD 5, prices for northwest Europe were raised by USD 3, and those for the USA were left unchanged. The discount is attributed to the record freight rates. The Reuters survey had expected an increase of up to USD 5. (Reuters via EnergyNow, 5 October 2026)

05/10/2026 USA tenders an exchange of 40 million barrels The US Department of Energy published a tender for an exchange of up to 40 million barrels from the strategic reserve, that is a release with an obligation to return the oil and not a final drawdown. Bids were due on 6 October, with delivery in November and December from Big Hill and Bryan Mound. Rigzone cites the 172 million barrels as the US contribution to the IEA pledge of March covering 400 million barrels. Energy Secretary Chris Wright criticised several European members for having released only a fraction of their pledges. As of 25 September the reserve stood at 283.8 million barrels, the lowest level since October 1982, and thus at 39.7 percent of the authorised capacity of 714 million barrels. (US Department of Energy via Rigzone, 5 October 2026)

05/10/2026 Aramco chief gives 80 percent and very thin stocks Amin Nasser said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that the East-West pipeline was running at around 80 percent of its capacity and that the system was intact. Without the line the oil price could have reached USD 200 a barrel. He called global stocks frighteningly thin; refilling them would take up to two years after an opening of Hormuz. He put the supply shortfall since the start of the war at almost 3 billion barrels. (The National, 5 October 2026)

06/10/2026 East-West pipeline at 5.8 million barrels a day Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the GCC forum in Manama that the line was pumping 5.8 million barrels a day against a capacity of 7 million, and that it had been in use again within five or six days of the attack. In August, according to Kpler, it had been only 2 million barrels a day. Kpler gives flows close to 5.5 million, around 4 million of it available for export via Yanbu. The map therefore moves the pipeline and the port back from severely restricted to disrupted. (Al Jazeera and Reuters, 6 October 2026; congress.net, 6 October 2026 (Kpler Insight))

06/10/2026 Attacks on tankers increase, volumes stay high The intelligence service Marisks counted at least seven incidents involving tankers within one week, and since 2 October the UKMTO has reported at least one attack a day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden. At the same time Middle East crude exports stood at 18.3 million barrels a day according to Kpler as a seven day average to 30 September, about as much as the average of the twelve months before the war; around 40 percent of that bypasses the strait through pipelines. For the transits alone Kpler gives 9,017 thousand barrels a day against a pre-war figure of 17,132 thousand, around 47 percent below. For the week to 2 October the UKMTO counted 247 transits, around 35 a day, and by its own account calls that around 75 percent below the level before the conflict. (Al Jazeera, 6 October 2026 (Kpler, Vortexa, Marisks); UKMTO, 2 October 2026)

06/10/2026 Drones attack a pumping station outside Moscow Overnight, drones attacked the Transneft station at Volodarskaya near Konstantinovo, around 40 kilometres from the centre of Moscow; a products line links the site with the region's airports. The monitoring channels Exilenova and Supernova reported two burning tanks, which the Kyiv Independent could not verify immediately. Russian accounts of the drone numbers diverge: Moscow mayor Sobyanin spoke of 650 drones heading for the region and 105 shot down near Moscow, the regional governor of 185 shot down, and the defence ministry of 868 in total; the Moscow Times reported two dead and nine injured. On 4 October the Ukrainian defence ministry had put the loss of Russian refining capacity at more than 51 percent, and the general staff at more than 45 percent on 21 September; this is not independently confirmed. (Kyiv Independent, Euromaidan Press and The Moscow Times, 6 October 2026; AP via PBS NewsHour, 5 October 2026)

06/10/2026 Iraq looks for very large tankers of its own According to its director general Ali Qais Abdul Jabbar, the state owned Iraqi Oil Tankers Co. wants to charter at least one very large crude carrier and one Suezmax; shortly before that it had loaded a VLCC itself for the first time in decades. A supertanker was bought in September for about USD 200 million, according to Rigzone possibly the highest price ever paid for such a vessel. The reason is the price: the benchmark route from Saudi Arabia to China reached USD 1.29 million a day, against an average below USD 30,000 in the years 2021 to 2025. (Rigzone, 6 October 2026)

07/10/2026 Houthis report attacks on airports, missile near the runway in Aden The Houthis claimed attacks on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, Abha airport, the Khamis Mushait base and three military camps in Jizan and Asir; for 6 October Euronews also names a refinery in Rabigh. The Saudi-led coalition reported interceptions as well as the destruction of a launch platform in Sanaa and of a missile depot in Saada. Two ballistic missiles and several drones were fired at Aden airport; one missile came down near the runway, a Yemenia flight was diverted to Jeddah, and no casualties were reported. The Saudi accounts are not independently confirmed. (The National, 7 October 2026; Euronews, 6 October 2026)

07/10/2026 Tanker hit north of Qatar In the evening the British UKMTO reported a tanker hit by several projectiles about 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, with casualties among the crew (warning 158-26); it gave neither the number nor the nature of the casualties. According to the security firm Vanguard the vessel is the Acers, flagged in Antigua and Barbuda. The UKMTO names no perpetrator. According to Euronews it was the first attack in these waters in more than six months; the last time ships were hit inside the Gulf was on 9 September, when a bunker tanker off the UAE and a supertanker off Iraq's Al-Faw were struck. (UKMTO via Middle East Eye, 7 October 2026; Seatrade Maritime and Euronews, 8 October 2026)

07/10/2026 CENTCOM calls Iran's closure claim false After Mohammad Reza Naqdi, adviser to the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards, said on the Al-Alam channel on 6 October that the strait was closed and would stay so until Iran's demands were met, the US Central Command called that false on X: merchant ships and energy shipments, including 20 million barrels of crude, were still passing, and the USA and its partners retained control. CENTCOM gave no period for the 20 million barrels. Both sides are parties to the conflict. (IranWire, 8 October 2026)

08/10/2026 Hurricane Isaias shuts in nearly two thirds of Gulf of Mexico output According to the US Marine Minerals Administration, 62.9 percent of oil output in the US Gulf of Mexico was shut in on Thursday, 1.28 million barrels a day, after about 25 percent on Wednesday; 121 production platforms were evacuated. Landfall on the northern Gulf Coast was expected late Friday or early Saturday. (gCaptain, 8 October 2026)

08/10/2026 Fire on a tanker off Fujairah The security firm Vanguard reported a fire on a tanker about 40 kilometres off Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, probably the Dhalgout flagged in the Marshall Islands; the fire was visible in NASA satellite data. The UKMTO had not initially logged the incident, and the cause was unclear. (Euronews, 8 October 2026 (Vanguard))

08/10/2026 Trump rules out attacks before 3 November, Brent at 104.28 President Trump wrote that the US would not attack Iran before the congressional elections on 3 November; the talks were productive, he said, and the blockade would stay in force. He cited 22 million barrels that had passed through the strait in a single night, without a source. Earlier, reports of finished US plans for possible strikes had pushed the price up, along with the attacks on tankers and Hurricane Isaias. Brent closed 4.1 percent higher at USD 104.28, the highest since September, and came back from its intraday high. (ABC News, 8 October 2026; Bloomberg via Rigzone and investingLive, 8 October 2026)

09/10/2026 Supertanker hit off the UAE, Revolutionary Guards threaten the whole region At 10:00 UTC a projectile struck a tanker about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera in the UAE, and the fire has been put out; shipping and security sources identify the supertanker as the Gem No.2, flagged in Panama. The same day the navy of the Revolutionary Guards reported a hit on the LPG tanker NV Sunshine on a route it had not authorised, south of the strait, and declared that its action against such ships was no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz: they would be pursued across the whole region, and companies that had allowed themselves to be deceived by the US would be sanctioned. No independent body confirms the hit on the NV Sunshine. The navy of the Revolutionary Guards did not declare the whole Persian Gulf closed. (UKMTO via Reuters, Tasnim, Press TV and Seatrade Maritime, 9 October 2026)

Ship numbers: IMF PortWatch (International Monetary Fund), aggregated by us into weekly averages. AIS data understate traffic when ships switch off their transponders. Pre-crisis volumes and voyage times: U.S. Energy Information Administration. Heating oil prices: EU Weekly Oil Bulletin, heizoel24.ch, NYSERDA. Gas storage: GIE AGSI+. Base map: Natural Earth. Shipping routes schematic after Eurostat SeaRoute (EUPL-1.2). Pipelines schematic.

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Overview

What's on Global Oil Shock

The map above tracks which supply routes are open; the calculator estimates what the situation costs you. Everything else has a page of its own, each one dated and sourced.

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The situation in numbers

Brent from today back twelve months, so back to before the crisis, and the events that moved the price.

as of 9 Oct 2026

102.81USD a barrel, Brent future (ICE)30-day trend loading

Brent, USD a barrel event with source days and weeks from our own series, twelve months from Brent futures (BZ=F)

The more routes are closed or disrupted, the longer and dearer the journey for crude and diesel. Those costs reach household bills with a lag of a few weeks, and the maths behind that is in our methodology.

State of all 65 routes, ports and pipelines in the map above

7 Oct 2026

CENTCOM calls Iran's closure claim false

After Mohammad Reza Naqdi, adviser to the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards, said on the Al-Alam channel on 6 October that the strait was closed and would stay so until Iran's demands were met, the US Central Command called that false on X: merchant ships and energy shipments, including 20 million barrels of crude, were still passing, and the USA and its partners retained control. CENTCOM gave no period for the 20 million barrels. Both sides are parties to the conflict.

IranWire, 08.10.2026

8 Oct 2026

Hurricane Isaias shuts in nearly two thirds of Gulf of Mexico output

According to the US Marine Minerals Administration, 62.9 percent of oil output in the US Gulf of Mexico was shut in on Thursday, 1.28 million barrels a day, after about 25 percent on Wednesday; 121 production platforms were evacuated. Landfall on the northern Gulf Coast was expected late Friday or early Saturday.

gCaptain, 08.10.2026

8 Oct 2026

Fire on a tanker off Fujairah

The security firm Vanguard reported a fire on a tanker about 40 kilometres off Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, probably the Dhalgout flagged in the Marshall Islands; the fire was visible in NASA satellite data. The UKMTO had not initially logged the incident, and the cause was unclear.

Euronews, 08.10.2026 (Vanguard)

8 Oct 2026

Trump rules out attacks before 3 November, Brent at 104.28

President Trump wrote that the US would not attack Iran before the congressional elections on 3 November; the talks were productive, he said, and the blockade would stay in force. He cited 22 million barrels that had passed through the strait in a single night, without a source. Earlier, reports of finished US plans for possible strikes had pushed the price up, along with the attacks on tankers and Hurricane Isaias. Brent closed 4.1 percent higher at USD 104.28, the highest since September, and came back from its intraday high.

ABC News, 08.10.2026; Bloomberg via Rigzone und investingLive, 08.10.2026

9 Oct 2026

Supertanker hit off the UAE, Revolutionary Guards threaten the whole region

At 10:00 UTC a projectile struck a tanker about 13 nautical miles west of Al Jazeera in the UAE, and the fire has been put out; shipping and security sources identify the supertanker as the Gem No.2, flagged in Panama. The same day the navy of the Revolutionary Guards reported a hit on the LPG tanker NV Sunshine on a route it had not authorised, south of the strait, and declared that its action against such ships was no longer confined to the Strait of Hormuz: they would be pursued across the whole region, and companies that had allowed themselves to be deceived by the US would be sanctioned. No independent body confirms the hit on the NV Sunshine. The navy of the Revolutionary Guards did not declare the whole Persian Gulf closed.

UKMTO via Reuters, Tasnim, Press TV und Seatrade Maritime, 09.10.2026

Oil crisis 2026: where the oil is stuck and what it costs you

Situation at 65 oil chokepoints, pipelines and ports on 09/10/2026

Timeline 2026

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What's on Global Oil Shock

Prices today

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News and weekly reports

Glossary

Saving tips

Methodology and sources

The situation in numbers

CENTCOM calls Iran's closure claim false

Hurricane Isaias shuts in nearly two thirds of Gulf of Mexico output

Fire on a tanker off Fujairah

Trump rules out attacks before 3 November, Brent at 104.28

Supertanker hit off the UAE, Revolutionary Guards threaten the whole region

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