1. EIA Winter Fuels Outlook 2026 summary
The Energy Information Administration's annual Winter Fuels Outlook, published this year on 6 October 2026, is the most authoritative US forecast for heating oil, natural gas, propane, and electricity prices over the winter heating season. The outlook covers the period from October through March and breaks down expected household expenditure by fuel type, region, and weather scenario. For the Northeast heating oil market, EIA tracks both the wholesale Heating Oil No. 2 price (a futures contract reflecting the global crude oil market) and the retail residential price reported by oil dealers state by state.
The 2026-27 outlook is out, and heating oil is the one fuel where bills rise sharply. EIA expects households that heat with oil to spend $2,115 on average from November to March, 21% more than last winter, at an average retail price of $5.26 a gallon, up 34%. They are also expected to burn less, 402 gallons on average, down 9%, because the base case has 12% fewer heating degree days in the Northeast than last winter. EIA explains the rise with higher global crude oil and distillate prices: refineries worldwide are producing less distillate, international prices have climbed, export demand for US distillate is strong and US stocks are low (EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, 6 October 2026). EIA's monthly path for heating oil falls from $5.79 a gallon in November to $5.46 in December, $5.26 in January, $5.06 in February and $4.84 in March.
| Main heating fuel | US average, Nov to Mar | Northeast |
|---|---|---|
| Heating oil | $2,115 (+21%) | not published |
| Propane | $1,246 (−3%) | $1,687 (−15%) |
| Natural gas | $640 (−9%) | $879 (−14%) |
| Electricity | $1,196 (+4%) | $1,637 (−3%) |
Source: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, 6 October 2026, base case; change against last winter in brackets. EIA does not publish a Northeast heating oil spend; most oil-heated homes are in the Northeast. EIA also models winters 10% colder and 10% warmer than the base case.
Several factors shape the EIA outlook approach. First, the global Brent crude oil price serves as the upstream anchor, since heating oil and diesel are refined products of Brent-grade crude. See our background Brent entry for more on global oil price formation. Second, the EIA models the pass-through from wholesale to retail, which has historically averaged 60 to 70 percent of crude price moves over a 4-to-6-week lag. Third, winter weather (specifically heating degree days) affects demand and inventory drawdown rates, which can amplify or dampen the crude-driven base trend. Fourth, regional inventory levels (the Northeast has the Strategic Heating Oil Reserve and commercial inventories) affect short-term price volatility.
What it means for prices from here: EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook has Brent at about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84 on average in 2027 (6 October 2026), and Brent settled at $104.72 on 9 October (Reuters), right on that path. EIA's monthly path for heating oil starts at $5.79 a gallon in November and falls to $4.84 in March, so its base case is for prices to ease over the season rather than climb. That is a base case, not a floor: the outlook was published on 6 October, before the tanker attacks of 10 and 11 October, and a cold snap can lift local prices within days (see Section 5). EIA's weekly survey ($6.042 for the week of 5 October) excludes taxes, and EIA does not say whether its outlook prices do, so the two are not strictly comparable.
2. Northeast state breakdown (top-seven)
Heating oil prices vary across Northeast states with delivery costs, state taxes, distance to the nearest terminal and dealer competition. The table shows EIA's first weekly survey of the 2026-27 season, for the week of 5 October 2026, and what EIA's average winter use of 402 gallons would cost at that price. EIA publishes the survey every week from October to March, so the spring reference values this table used to show are no longer needed.
| State | $/gal, week of 5 Oct 2026 | 402 gallons (US-average winter use) at that price |
|---|---|---|
| New York | $6.230 | ~$2,504 |
| Massachusetts | $6.119 | ~$2,460 |
| Rhode Island | $6.116 | ~$2,459 |
| New Jersey | $6.037 | ~$2,427 |
| Connecticut | $6.003 | ~$2,413 |
| Vermont | $5.989 | ~$2,408 |
| New Hampshire | $5.976 | ~$2,402 |
| Maine | $5.974 | ~$2,402 |
| Pennsylvania | $5.833 | ~$2,345 |
Source: EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update, residential prices excluding taxes, week of 5 October 2026. The last column is our calculation: the price times 402 gallons, EIA's average winter use for an oil-heated home. Your own use depends on house size, insulation and weather, and prices within a state differ by dealer, delivery size and contract.
New York: the largest heating oil market
New York has the largest absolute number of heating oil customers in the country, approximately 1.5 million households, concentrated in upstate New York, the Hudson Valley, Long Island, and the outer boroughs of NYC. EIA's survey for the week of 5 October 2026 put New York at $6.230 a gallon, the highest of the surveyed Northeast states, with urban downstate prices typically 15 to 30 cents higher than upstate rural areas. New York has a robust co-op infrastructure and the Heating Equipment Repair and Replacement (HERR) program through NYSERDA that helps with system upgrades.
Massachusetts and Connecticut: traditionally among the highest prices
In the week of 5 October 2026 Massachusetts ($6.119 a gallon) was second only to New York among the surveyed Northeast states, while Connecticut ($6.003) sat in the middle of the range (EIA). Drivers include higher state energy taxes, density-related delivery costs, and limited refining proximity. Both states have aggressive electrification programs (Mass Save in MA, Energize CT) that incentivize heat pump conversion away from heating oil. Many households in these states are evaluating the conversion question seriously, see our IRA Heat Pump Tax Credit 25C sub-page for the federal stack that applies.
Maine and New Hampshire: most-oil-dependent states
Maine has the highest percentage of households heating with oil in the United States, approximately 60 percent of all residences. New Hampshire is close behind at around 40 percent. Both states have meaningful co-op infrastructure (Maine particularly has strong rural cooperatives) and historically lower prices than the more urbanized Massachusetts and Connecticut markets; in the week of 5 October 2026 Maine stood at $5.974 and New Hampshire at $5.976 a gallon (EIA). Maine also has aggressive home weatherization through Efficiency Maine that pairs well with continued oil use during transition.
Pennsylvania: middle of the range
Pennsylvania has a moderate oil-heat market concentration, mostly in rural and small-town areas in the eastern and northern parts of the state. Retail prices tend toward the lower end of the Northeast range ($5.833 a gallon in the week of 5 October 2026, the lowest of the Northeast states in EIA's survey) due to proximity to Philadelphia and refining infrastructure. Pennsylvania has the COMPASS LIHEAP program and the Weatherization Assistance Program network operated through community action agencies.
Rhode Island: small market, full Northeast pricing
Rhode Island is the smallest of the seven states by absolute household count but follows Massachusetts pricing dynamics closely: $6.116 against $6.119 a gallon in the week of 5 October 2026 (EIA). Approximately 30 percent of RI homes use heating oil. The state has its own LIHEAP program through DHS and stack-eligibility with federal IRA programs for heat pump conversion.
What would the winter cost your household specifically?
Calculate in 60 seconds what 800 to 1,100 gallons of heating oil at varying prices would cost you over the 2026-2027 winter, plus the impact of an oil-price spike. Free, no email required.
Calculate my winter costSponsored
3. Lock-in versus variable contracts
The lock-in versus variable contract decision is the single most important pricing choice you make as a heating oil customer. Roughly 30 to 40 percent of Northeast oil customers use some form of lock-in or pre-buy program, with the remainder on variable (also called market or floating) pricing. Both have advantages, and the right choice depends on your tolerance for surprise versus your willingness to forfeit potential price drops.
- Fixed-price lock-in (also called pre-buy) You commit to buy a specific volume (typically your full winter consumption) at a guaranteed price set in summer or early fall. The dealer locks in their wholesale cost via futures contracts and passes the predictability to you. Upside: complete price certainty for the season. Downside: if market prices fall, you pay above market; if you do not consume the contracted volume (mild winter, vacation), you may forfeit the difference or have rollover provisions. Best for households that value budget predictability over potential savings, particularly those on fixed incomes who cannot absorb surprise price spikes.
- Price-cap (sometimes called ceiling) contracts A hybrid where you pay variable market price but with a guaranteed maximum. If prices stay low, you pay low; if prices spike above the cap, you pay the cap. The dealer typically charges a small premium (5 to 15 cents per gallon) for this insurance. Best for households who want some upside protection but do not want to fully lock in. Most popular among middle-income suburban customers.
- Budget-bill plans You pay a level monthly amount that estimates your annual heating oil expense divided by 12 (or sometimes by 10 or 11 with the heating season weighted heavier). The dealer reconciles at the end of the season, refunding or charging the difference. This does not affect the per-gallon price but smooths cash flow. Best combined with another pricing structure (variable, capped, or fixed) for the cash flow benefit alone.
- Variable (market) pricing You pay the dealer's spot price on each delivery, which tracks the daily wholesale market. Upside: you benefit when prices fall, and you do not commit to any volume. Downside: full exposure to winter spikes. Best for households with flexible budgets, those who can defer deliveries when prices are high (by topping off in summer or early fall), and those skeptical that lock-in dealers price contracts fairly.
- Split strategy: 50 to 70 percent lock-in plus 30 to 50 percent variable The risk-managed middle ground. Lock in enough of your winter consumption to feel safe against spikes (typically 50 to 70 percent), leave the remainder on variable for potential savings if prices fall. This caps your downside while preserving some upside flexibility. Probably the most defensible approach for most households without strong forecasting conviction either direction.
4. Co-op programs for low-income households
Heating oil cooperatives aggregate the buying power of many households to negotiate bulk pricing with regional dealers. They are especially prevalent in Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, Maine, and parts of New Hampshire. Membership typically costs $25 to $50 annually and delivers 10 to 30 cents per gallon below retail spot price, which for a typical 800 to 1,000-gallon household saves $80 to $300 annually.
Mass Energy Consumers Alliance (Massachusetts)
Mass Energy operates the largest heating oil cooperative in the country with over 12,000 members. The co-op negotiates contracts with regional dealers and passes savings to members. Income-tested expansion of membership is available for moderate-income households. Mass Energy also offers home efficiency assessments and Mass Save coordination.
Citizens Energy (Massachusetts and Connecticut)
Founded by Joseph Kennedy II, Citizens Energy provides discounted heating oil deliveries specifically to low-income households in Massachusetts, Connecticut, and Rhode Island. The program partners with regional dealers and PetroNet to deliver 100 to 200 gallons of subsidized heating oil per winter to qualifying families. Annual income limits apply.
Citizens Energy Group LIHEAP Bridge (Massachusetts and Rhode Island)
A separate program through Citizens that bridges LIHEAP benefits during gap periods (between award and delivery). Useful for households whose LIHEAP application is in process or who need fuel before formal LIHEAP approval. Phone-based intake through community action agencies.
State-level low-income co-ops
Many Northeast states have community-action-agency-run heating oil purchase aggregators that combine state heating assistance with bulk purchase agreements. Examples include Acadia Energy Cooperative in Maine, Green Mountain Power Cooperative in Vermont, and the various Action Agency networks throughout New York. Call 211 in your state for local options.
A caveat on choosing a co-op
Not all co-ops are equally well-managed. Some have faced delivery reliability issues during cold snaps when demand spikes. Before joining a co-op, check member reviews, delivery reliability ratings, and the co-op's relationship with dealers in your specific town. The 10 to 30 cents per gallon savings is meaningful but if your delivery is delayed during a cold snap, the savings disappear. Strong co-ops have established multi-dealer relationships and reliable emergency delivery protocols. For households facing winter heating crises despite co-op membership, see our LIHEAP Application Eligibility sub-page for emergency federal options.
5. Risk factors winter 2026-2027
Several risk factors could push heating oil prices significantly higher than the EIA base-case forecast for the 2026-2027 winter. Caveat: we are not forecasting these will happen, but they are worth understanding for sensitivity analysis when deciding on lock-in versus variable pricing.
Update 11 October 2026: what moved the market this week
Three things moved heating oil this week, two of them upwards. Attacks on tankers spread: a tanker was hit north of Qatar on 7 October and the supertanker Gem No.2 off the UAE on 9 October, and two more outbound tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on 10 and 11 October; the UK's maritime agency UKMTO named no perpetrator (gCaptain). Crude moving through the strait averaged 8.5 million barrels a day in the week to 7 October, about 40% below normal (Kpler via Al Jazeera). On 11 October Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, called the US reply to Iran's conditions insufficient and said the strait stays closed until they are met (Reuters). Hurricane Isaias meanwhile led producers to shut in more than 70% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output before landfall (Reuters).
The third move went the other way. On 9 October President Trump announced Russian diesel deliveries to the US and world markets, and NYMEX ULSD, the futures contract heating oil dealers price against, fell 4.6% that day to $4.73 a gallon; DTN also cites reports that China will resume fuel exports. The Kremlin confirmed it was ready to supply oil and oil products, and Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban on 10 October, at first for 500,000 tonnes (Al Jazeera, TASS). Brent still settled the week at $104.72 a barrel (Reuters). How much Russian diesel actually arrives, and when, is not confirmed beyond Moscow's first tranche.
Hormuz Strait disruption: active, not hypothetical
The Strait of Hormuz handles approximately 20 percent of global oil exports, and this risk is no longer theoretical. The timeline so far this year: a February-March 2026 US-Iran conflict pushed Brent above $100 per barrel; a June 18, 2026 US-Iran memorandum then brought prices back down to roughly $74 to $84 per barrel; and a mid-July re-escalation, including US strikes, Houthi attacks on tankers, and renewed threats to close Hormuz, pushed Brent back above $100. As of 11 September 2026, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal traffic, with tanker-tracking averages of roughly 12 to 13 transits a day versus around 100 a day before the crisis; Iran's parliament speaker has said the country retains full control of the strait and will not allow it to reopen. The latest additions to the crisis are Houthi strikes on Saudi oil facilities on 8 September and the Houthi seizure, on 11 September, of the Yemeni Red Sea port of Mokha near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which itself carries around 12 percent of global oil transport; Brent stood at 103.98 US dollars per barrel on 11 September, with a weekly high of 107.6 US dollars. The International Energy Agency's September Oil Market Report, published 11 September 2026, cut its 2026 global demand growth estimate by 2.5 million barrels a day year-on-year and pointed to record diesel prices as a result of the disruption. Northeast heating oil retail prices follow Brent with a 4-to-6-week lag, so the September moves have likely not yet fully reached the delivery truck. A further closure threat or an actual disruption could push Brent well above the current level within days.
Cold winter weather
Heating degree days above the normal range significantly increase demand and draw down inventory faster. A severe Northeast winter (10 to 15 percent more heating degree days than normal) typically translates to 5 to 10 percent higher seasonal prices, plus increased volatility during cold snaps. NOAA winter forecasts in October 2026 will provide the first useful signal. EIA's base case already assumes a Northeast winter 12% warmer than last winter in heating degree days; its side cases run 10% colder and 10% warmer (EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, 6 October 2026).
OPEC+ supply decisions
OPEC+ agreed on July 5-6, 2026 to raise production by 188,000 barrels per day for August, continuing its gradual unwind of earlier production cuts. Since then, the price story has shifted to the Red Sea and Hormuz shipping risk described above; tracking how OPEC+ responds to the current price spike at its coming meetings, whether with a further supply increase to help cool prices or a pause given the geopolitical risk, remains an early signal for winter 2026-2027 pricing.
Sanctions and trade dynamics
US sanctions on Russian, Iranian, or Venezuelan oil exports affect global supply availability. Sanctions tightening tends to push prices up; sanctions relief pushes them down. The 2026 political environment has multiple sanctions decisions pending that could affect supply in either direction.
Refining margin and capacity
Heating oil price is not just crude price; it is also the pass-through through refining. The refining margin (crack spread) for diesel and heating oil has been historically tight as global refining capacity has consolidated. A refinery outage on the East Coast (PADD 1) during winter would amplify any crude price increase substantially. That tightness is already visible: NY Harbor heating oil futures stood at 5.10 US dollars per gallon on 11 September 2026, up 18.5 percent on the month and 122.8 percent on the year, while EIA data show US distillate stocks running 13 percent below the five-year average and refinery utilization at 97.8 percent. A month later, on 9 October, NYMEX ULSD settled at $4.73 a gallon (DTN), and US distillate stocks were about 12% below the five-year average in the week to 2 October (EIA via Rigzone).
Strategic Petroleum Reserve dynamics
The US SPR is currently at low historical levels, limiting the federal government's ability to release oil to dampen price spikes. If a crisis emerges, the muted SPR response capability could allow spikes to run further than in past episodes.
Model your winter heating budget with crisis scenarios
The energy cost calculator runs your specific oil consumption against base-case and crisis-scenario prices, showing how a Hormuz disruption or cold winter could affect your household bills. 60 seconds.
Start the energy cost calculator