1. The short answer for New England households
Nobody can tell you the exact per-gallon price for January in Concord or Worcester, and anyone who does is guessing. What the data does say: EIA's own monthly forecast for heating oil falls from $5.79 a gallon in November to $4.84 in March, so the official base case is for some easing over the winter, not a further climb, from a first New England reading of $6.037 in the week of 5 October. If your tank is below a third, order now. Between a third and two thirds, split the order between now and the next few weekly readings. Above two thirds, wait, but with three written quotes in hand.
The reason to act on tank level rather than on a forecast is simple. Retail heating oil in New England is built from three layers: crude, the refinery and wholesale margin, and the dealer's delivery margin. Only the first two move with the headlines, and both have moved up since the last official retail reading. The third layer is local and stable. So the question is not whether this winter will be expensive, it will be, but whether you carry the risk of an empty tank into a market where deliveries can slip.
2. Where prices actually stand: the last official readings by state
Short answer: EIA's first reading of the 2026-27 season put New England at $6.037 a gallon for the week of 5 October 2026, 46 cents above the $5.578 of the last reading of the previous season, week ending 30 March. The EIA's weekly residential heating oil survey runs from October to March, and prices are residential averages excluding taxes. The US average was $6.042.
State by state, the week of 5 October brought: New York $6.230 (March: $5.874), Massachusetts $6.119 ($5.742), Rhode Island $6.116 ($5.802), Connecticut $6.003 ($5.546), Vermont $5.989 ($5.558), New Hampshire $5.976 ($5.407) and Maine $5.974 ($5.371). The cheaper northern states caught up most, Maine by 60 cents and New Hampshire by 57, so the spread between the cheapest and the most expensive state has narrowed from about half a dollar in March to about 26 cents.
The wholesale leg moves first. NYMEX ULSD, the benchmark New England dealers price against, settled at $4.73 a gallon on 9 October, 4.6% lower that day, after President Trump announced Russian diesel deliveries and amid reports that China will resume fuel exports (DTN). Brent settled the same day at $104.72 a barrel (Reuters). One day's drop is not a trend.
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3. Why the supply side matters more than the seasonal pattern this year
Update 11 October 2026: EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook of 6 October gives the reason in its own words: higher global crude oil and distillate prices, lower refining activity worldwide, export demand and low US distillate stocks, about 12% below the five-year average in the week to 2 October (EIA via Rigzone). Around the Strait of Hormuz, crude transits averaged 8.5 million barrels a day in the week to 7 October, about 40% below normal (Kpler via Al Jazeera), and two more outbound tankers were hit on 10 and 11 October, with no perpetrator named (gCaptain). The paragraphs below describe the situation as of 11 September.
Short answer: the usual autumn window, when demand is low and dealers compete for pre-buy volume, is competing with a distillate shortage. The EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook, published on 9 September, projects that US distillate inventories will drop below 100 million barrels in September and stay below the five-year low through much of 2027. Weekly data already show stocks 13 percent under the five-year average, with refineries running at 97.8 percent of capacity, leaving little room to produce more.
The International Energy Agency's report of 11 September widened the picture: it now expects world oil demand to fall by 2.5 million barrels a day in 2026, a decline it compares in scale to the four largest demand shocks of the past 60 years, and it points to record diesel prices. Heating oil and diesel are the same product with different dye, so a tight diesel market is a tight heating oil market.
The supply constraint is the Strait of Hormuz. Ship-tracking data cited by Al Jazeera on 3 September show around 12 to 13 tanker transits a day against roughly 100 before the crisis, and Iran says it will not allow the strait to reopen. On 11 September the Houthis took the Yemeni port of Mokha near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, a route that carries about 12 percent of global oil supplies, after strikes on Saudi oil facilities earlier in the week. Two key sea routes for Gulf oil are impaired at the same time, which is why crude rose about 9 percent in one week.
See what $120, $150 or $180 crude would add to your household's winter bill.
Run the scenario4. State by state: what to watch in CT, MA, NH, ME, VT and NY
The numbers below are EIA's first readings of the new season, for the week of 5 October 2026, with the last reading of the previous season (week ending 30 March 2026) for comparison, and what makes each state's market different.
- Connecticut, $6.003 (March: $5.546). Close to the New England average of $6.037. Quotes differ by dealer more than by town, so collect three written quotes; if a capped contract is offered, check whether the cap premium is built into the per-gallon rate or charged up front.
- Massachusetts, $6.119 (March: $5.742). Second-highest of the seven states this week. If your income is near the assistance threshold, apply for fuel assistance before the first delivery rather than after; the programme draws on federal LIHEAP funds.
- New Hampshire, $5.976 (March: $5.407). Second-cheapest this week, after the biggest rise but one since March. Pre-buy offers are common; ask whether the dealer's pre-buy money is bonded or escrowed before paying up front.
- Maine, $5.974 (March: $5.371). Still the cheapest, but only by a fraction of a cent, after the largest rise since March. With a low starting price the risk is availability rather than the last few cents: fill early rather than cheaply.
- Vermont, $5.989 (March: $5.558). Slightly below the regional average. Fuel assistance is LIHEAP-funded, as in the other states, and applications typically open in autumn.
- New York, $6.230 (March: $5.874). Highest of the seven states. New York belongs to the EIA's Central Atlantic district (PADD 1B), whose average was $6.084 in the week of 5 October, so compare quotes locally rather than against the state figure.
- Rhode Island, $6.116 (March: $5.802). Third-highest this week, a fraction below Massachusetts. Read pre-buy contracts closely for the minimum delivery quantity, which decides whether two quotes are comparable at all.
The assistance programmes named above all draw on federal LIHEAP money; eligibility and how to apply are covered on our LIHEAP page.
5. Lock in, pre-buy, cap or float: the rule for this winter
Short answer: with EIA expecting oil-heat bills 21% above last winter and distillate stocks about 12% below the five-year average, the value of a known ceiling is higher than in a normal year. A pre-buy fixes the price for a set number of gallons paid up front; it removes price risk but adds dealer risk, so check that the money is escrowed or bonded. A cap sets a ceiling and lets you benefit if prices fall; you pay for that asymmetry in the per-gallon rate. A variable plan is cheapest if the strait reopens and most exposed if it does not.
Apply the tank rule from the top of this page, and add one timing rule: be done before the first hard freeze. Delivery windows stretch as soon as temperatures break, and in a season where the EIA expects distillate stocks below their five-year low, the cost of waiting is not only price but availability. Our buy-now-or-wait guide goes through the contract types in more detail.
Two events would change the rule. A verified reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would pull crude down fast; if your tank is above two thirds, that is worth waiting for. A further escalation around Bab el-Mandeb would push it the other way. Do not act on a single day's move: the heating oil futures contract fell 4.6% on 9 October on the Russian diesel news (DTN), while Brent still settled the week at $104.72 (Reuters).
6. What the EIA and IEA outlooks imply for the winter
Short answer: the official base case is for oil-heat bills 21% above last winter and for crude to ease in 2027. EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook of 6 October 2026 expects an average retail price of $5.26 a gallon over November to March, up 34%, on a monthly path from $5.79 in November to $4.84 in March, and 402 gallons of use per household, down 9%, because the Northeast is forecast 12% warmer than last winter. Its Short-Term Energy Outlook of the same day has Brent at about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $84 on average in 2027.
Two caveats. First, EIA does not publish a New England or state retail forecast; the outlook is a national figure, though most oil-heated homes are in the Northeast. Second, the outlook was published on 6 October, before two more tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz on 10 and 11 October (gCaptain). We update the state prices on this page as the weekly survey comes in.