1. What EIA expects this winter, fuel by fuel
The Winter Fuels Outlook is EIA's annual forecast of what households will pay to heat their homes from November to March. The 2026-27 edition, published on 6 October 2026 and based on the October Short-Term Energy Outlook, splits sharply by fuel: heating oil up 21%, the three other main fuels between a 9% drop and a 4% rise on the national average. For the three fuels with a published Northeast figure, bills there fall more or rise less than on the national average, because EIA's base case assumes a Northeast winter 12% warmer than the last one. Most oil-heated homes are in the Northeast as well, but EIA publishes no Northeast heating oil bill.
| Main heating fuel | US average spend, Nov to Mar | Northeast spend | Price this winter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heating oil | $2,115 (+21%) | not published | $5.26/gal (+34%) |
| Propane | $1,246 (−3%) | $1,687 (−15%) | $2.52/gal (−2%) |
| Natural gas | $640 (−9%) | $879 (−14%) | $13.44/Mcf (−9%) |
| Electricity | $1,196 (+4%) | $1,637 (−3%) | 18.23 ¢/kWh (+3%) |
Source: EIA Winter Fuels Outlook, 6 October 2026, base case; change against last winter in brackets. Expected use per household: heating oil 402 gallons (−9%), propane 494 gallons (−1%), natural gas 48 thousand cubic feet (unchanged), electricity 6,562 kWh (+1%). The spend figures are averages; a large, poorly insulated house can easily use twice as much. For heating oil, EIA also gives a monthly price path: $5.79 a gallon in November, $5.46 in December, $5.26 in January, $5.06 in February and $4.84 in March.
2. Why heating oil is the outlier
Heating oil is priced off diesel, and diesel is tight worldwide. EIA names the drivers in the outlook itself: higher global crude oil and distillate prices, lower refining activity worldwide, export demand for US distillate and low US stocks. In the week to 2 October, US distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel, were about 12% below the five-year average (EIA via Rigzone). Natural gas and electricity prices are set largely by domestic markets, and most US propane comes from natural gas processing, so none of the three carries the same exposure to the oil crisis in the Middle East.
That crisis is still running. Crude moving through the Strait of Hormuz averaged 8.5 million barrels a day in the week to 7 October, about 40% below normal (Kpler via Al Jazeera), and tankers were hit north of Qatar on 7 October, off the UAE on 9 October and inside the strait on 10 and 11 October, with no perpetrator named by the UK maritime agency UKMTO (gCaptain). On 11 October Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaee called the US reply to Iran's conditions insufficient and said the strait stays closed until they are met (Reuters). Brent settled at $104.72 a barrel on 9 October (Reuters); EIA's outlook has it at about $105 in the fourth quarter and $84 on average in 2027.
3. Heating oil prices this week by state
EIA surveys residential heating oil prices every week from October to March. The first survey of the 2026-27 season, for the week of 5 October, found $6.042 a gallon on average, excluding taxes. EIA's outlook puts the winter average at $5.26, on a monthly path from $5.79 in November to $4.84 in March; the weekly survey excludes taxes, and EIA does not say whether its outlook prices do, so the two series are not strictly comparable. The table shows the states EIA covers on the East Coast and in the Midwest.
| Region or state | $/gal, week of 5 Oct 2026 |
|---|---|
| US average | 6.042 |
| New England | 6.037 |
| Connecticut | 6.003 |
| Maine | 5.974 |
| Massachusetts | 6.119 |
| New Hampshire | 5.976 |
| Rhode Island | 6.116 |
| Vermont | 5.989 |
| Central Atlantic | 6.084 |
| Delaware | 6.044 |
| Maryland | 6.110 |
| New Jersey | 6.037 |
| New York | 6.230 |
| Pennsylvania | 5.833 |
| Lower Atlantic | 5.894 |
| North Carolina | 5.823 |
| Virginia | 5.948 |
| Midwest | 5.742 |
| Indiana | 5.758 |
| Iowa | 5.680 |
| Kentucky | 5.829 |
| Michigan | 5.584 |
| Minnesota | 5.737 |
| Nebraska | 5.332 |
| Ohio | 5.915 |
| Wisconsin | 5.579 |
Source: EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update, residential prices excluding taxes, week of 5 October 2026; no value was reported for Illinois and the District of Columbia. Prices within a state differ by dealer, delivery size and contract. State-by-state detail for New England is on New England heating oil by state, the Northeast outlook on Northeast heating oil forecast.
4. What could still push your winter bill up or down
The outlook is a base case, and three things can move it in the coming weeks.
- Down: Russian diesel. On 9 October President Trump announced Russian diesel deliveries to the US and world markets, and NYMEX ULSD, the futures contract heating oil dealers price against, fell 4.6% that day to $4.73 a gallon; DTN also cites reports that China will resume fuel exports. The Kremlin confirmed it was ready to supply oil and oil products, and Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban on 10 October, at first for 500,000 tonnes (Al Jazeera, TASS). How much arrives beyond the first tranche is not confirmed.
- Up or down: the weather. EIA's base case has the Northeast 12% warmer than last winter. A colder winter raises use and, with stocks this low, prices; EIA runs side cases 10% colder and 10% warmer than the base case.
- Up: the Gulf. Tankers were hit off Qatar on 7 October, at anchor off the UAE on 9 October and in the Strait of Hormuz on 10 and 11 October (gCaptain), and an attack on Riyadh airport on 10 October, claimed by the Houthis, killed at least 12 people (Saudi civil aviation authority via Al Jazeera), opening a second front. The outlook was published on 6 October, before the attacks of 10 and 11 October.
Hurricane Isaias, which led producers to shut in more than 70% of US Gulf of Mexico crude output before landfall (Reuters), mainly affects crude supply; shut-ins after hurricanes are usually temporary, and the effect on heating oil depends on how quickly output and Gulf Coast refineries return.
5. What to do before the first cold snap
For oil-heated homes, the decision is about timing and contract type, not about the national average. If your tank is below a third, order now; between a third and two thirds, a partial fill spreads the risk; above two thirds, you can wait with quotes ready. A price cap protects you against another spike while letting you benefit if EIA's easing path plays out. The full rule is on Heating Oil: Buy Now or Wait?, the forecast detail on Heating oil price predictions.
If the bill is a problem rather than a planning question, apply for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program early, because deadlines and crisis options vary by state; eligibility and the application process are on LIHEAP application and eligibility. For gas, propane and electric heat, the biggest lever this winter is how much you use, not the price: a programmable thermostat and sealed drafts cut use directly.