Diesel shortage winter 2026/27: why diesel is scarcer than crude oil

1. Why diesel is scarcer than crude

As of 11 October: Russia has eased its diesel export ban; nothing has been delivered yet. President Trump wrote on 9 October that Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the American and global market, another 500,000 tonnes in November and a million after that (Truth Social via Al Jazeera). After a 90-minute call between Putin and Trump, the Kremlin confirmed only that it was ready to supply oil and oil products, without figures (Al Jazeera). On 10 October the Russian government eased the diesel export ban, at first for 500,000 tonnes; Deputy Prime Minister Novak cited 300,000 tonnes in October, 500,000 in November and a million in December, possibly up to three million a month later on (TASS). The market reacted to Trump's announcement itself: the US futures contract for diesel and heating oil fell 4.6% to $4.73 a gallon on 9 October; DTN also cites reports that China will resume fuel exports.

For the shortage itself, little changes at first. The volumes are announced, not delivered, and they depend on how much Russian refineries can produce after the Ukrainian drone strikes. The underlying problem described below stays the same: the world is short above all of refined products, less of crude.

There is crude; what is missing is the refining capacity that turns it into diesel and the shipping that carries the diesel to where it is needed. Two quotes from the same evening make the point: at 19:40 on 22 September 2026 Brent stood at $99.80 a barrel and was falling, while ICE gasoil stood at $1,452.50 a tonne and rose 0.99 per cent (HeizOel24.at). Converting the tonne at the customary 7.45 barrels, a barrel of gasoil costs about $195, roughly $95 more than the crude it is made from. That gap, the diesel crack spread, is the shortage in a single number; our conversion is an approximation, the order of magnitude is not. Ten days later, at 13:14 on 2 October, gasoil stood at $1,385 a tonne (−4.33 per cent) and Brent at $100.03 (−3.08 per cent); at the same factor that is about $186 a barrel for gasoil, roughly $86 above the crude (HeizOel24.ch, our approximation).

Since 1 October the gap can be measured: crude is back, products are not. According to Kpler (as of Monday, 28 September), 13.5 million barrels of crude a day pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the prewar level; refined products manage only 677,000 barrels a day on a seven-day average, against 3.6 million before the war, a little under a fifth (IBTimes citing Kpler, 1 October). Behind that sits refining: Middle East refineries processed about 7.3 million barrels a day in August against 9.9 million in February, and Kpler sees no full return before the second quarter of 2027. About 40 per cent of Gulf crude now leaves the region without passing Hormuz, against 17 per cent before the war (Kpler). So the headline “Hormuz flows again” holds for crude, not for diesel.

Three causes overlap. First, Hormuz: the Gulf states are large exporters of finished products, and Bloomberg reported on 10 September that product shipments through the strait are recovering more slowly than crude; freight now costs at least 25 per cent of the crude price to Asia (OilPrice.com, 22 September). Second, Russia: after drone strikes, three of the country's six largest diesel refineries had to cut or halt output in September (Hydrocarbon Processing, 16 September); the diesel export ban runs until 31 October for producers, gasoline is banned until January and jet fuel until November (Moscow Times, 30 September). Third, utilisation: US refineries ran at 96.8 per cent in the week to 11 September (DOE via HeizOel24), and European plants are at maximum according to Motor16; no more diesel is coming out of this asset base. Since 1 October there is also China's reported halt of product exports (Reuters via Dawn, not officially confirmed); more on that under “What winter brings”.

3. What winter brings: shortage or just price?

As of 11 October: EIA expects high but falling heating oil prices this winter. Its Winter Fuels Outlook of 6 October expects oil-heated US households to pay an average of $5.26 a gallon from November to March, 34% more than last winter, on a monthly path from $5.79 in November to $4.84 in March. It names higher crude oil and distillate prices, lower refining activity worldwide, export demand and low US distillate stocks; the outlook says nothing about supply security. For Brent it expects about $105 in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $84 on average in 2027 (STEO, 6 October). The September outlook figures in the next paragraph stay on the page as background.

The EIA does not expect empty pumps; it expects high prices: $5.55 a gallon for diesel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $5.66 for heating oil, then a decline to $4.40 and $4.31 on average in 2027 as the Hormuz constraints unwind in the second quarter of 2027 (STEO, 9 September). The market prices scarcity, it does not ration it; rationing was the exception in March 2026 (Slovenia limited private motorists to 50 litres a day, Wikipedia) and stayed the exception. What winter adds is seasonal: heating oil demand in the US Northeast and in Europe, winter diesel with costlier additives from November, and cold that raises consumption per mile.

Several supply-side moves have come in recent days, and they concern products, not crude. China: according to Reuters, Chinese refiners have suspended exports of oil products except to Hong Kong and Macau until further notice; the report names no individual fuels, the source is four people familiar with the matter, and there is no official Chinese confirmation; Brent closed at $102.31 on 1 October, 4.37 per cent higher, and Dawn names as a further driver that day a Wall Street Journal report on a third US aircraft carrier (Reuters via Dawn). Russia: the diesel export ban runs until 31 October for producers and until January for non-producers; gasoline is banned outright until January and jet fuel until November. The government cites domestic supply during the harvest season and shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries (Moscow Times, 30 September).

Putin said at the Valdai forum on 1 October that, by his own estimate, the refinery strikes cost Russia about 1 per cent of GDP, and asked: “How is our diesel supposed to reach the global market with sanctions still in place? It can't.” For context, Russia itself has banned diesel exports by producers until 31 October (Moscow Times, 30 September). He called the idea of giving up attacks on Ukrainian ships in return for an end to the refinery strikes absurd (Meduza, 1 October). In the night to 2 October drones hit the Volgograd refinery, the Kaustik chemical plant and a Transneft station with a tank farm near Samara; the governor of Volgograd spoke of a massive drone attack on industrial infrastructure, one person was injured, and the fires at the refinery and the tank farm are so far documented only by eyewitness video and not officially confirmed (Meduza, 2 October). A decree of 28 September also bans the publication of refinery, export, buyer and route data unless the company publishes it itself; according to Reuters this is meant to make it harder to enforce sanctions (Kyiv Independent). The consequence: independent figures on Russian outages will become rarer.

On top came a dispute over reserves. President Trump had demanded at least 100 million barrels of diesel from Europe and threatened an export ban on US diesel; the European Commission replied: “We fully reject a ban on diesel. A ban would not be beneficial to anyone. It would undermine our trust in the US as a reliable partner.” Before that the EU had been weighing a French counterproposal of 50 million barrels of diesel from European stocks plus 50 million barrels of crude from IEA members. In the afternoon of 2 October the G7 decided: they release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude through the IEA, starting immediately and spread over four months, with a “substantial” share of diesel in the first 20 days (The Irish Times, updated 16:25). After the announcement the European diesel future fell 8 per cent to $1,337.75 a tonne, and Brent dropped below $99 for a time (Irish Times; Trading Economics). At the earlier interim reading of almost 6 per cent ($1,364 a tonne) the paper had seen roughly eight cents a litre at the pump as possible; we have no calculation for the position after the decision. Whether Trump's threat of an export ban still stands after the decision is open.

Two things could change the picture quickly. Upwards: a collapse of the Hormuz talks as on 8 July, further refinery outages in Russia or further attacks on ships; on 1 October an unknown projectile hit a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, a fire broke out on board, the crew were unharmed, and the report named no culprit (UKMTO via Asharq Al-Awsat). Downwards: a reopening of the strait to products as well; it would cheapen crude fast and diesel slowly, because stocks have to be rebuilt first (see Hormuz reopening: three scenarios). The US outlook for diesel and heating oil is on US diesel and heating oil prices. The next fixed date is 31 October, when the Russian diesel export ban for producers ends unless it is extended again.