1. Where storage stands today
German gas storage was 57.7 per cent full at the latest count by the Federal Network Agency (ZDFheute); for 2 October Trading Economics gives Germany as “just above 57 per cent” and the EU as about 71 per cent, against a five-year average of 87 per cent. That puts Germany roughly 13 points below the EU level (own calculation from 57.7 and about 71 per cent). The figures come from different sources with their own reference dates, so we show them side by side and do not average them.
For the record, the earlier reading: on the morning of 22 September 2026 German storage held 140.7 terawatt-hours of working gas, 56.8 per cent of a technical capacity of 247.5 TWh; the previous day saw 711 gigawatt-hours injected and just 5 withdrawn, lifting the fill level by 0.29 percentage points (GIE AGSI). The EU stood at 69.9 per cent then, the Netherlands at 55.5, France at 80.3, Italy at 85.8 and Poland at 98.5 per cent. The table shows all AGSI values for the gas day of 21/22 September; newer country figures from that source were not available to us for this update.
| Country | Fill level (22 Sep) | Working gas | Capacity |
|---|---|---|---|
| EU total | 69.9 % | 791.5 TWh | 1,131.6 TWh |
| Germany | 56.8 % | 140.7 TWh | 247.5 TWh |
| Netherlands | 55.5 % | 80.0 TWh | 144.0 TWh |
| Belgium | 60.0 % | 4.6 TWh | 7.6 TWh |
| Austria | 67.8 % | 68.0 TWh | 100.3 TWh |
| Spain | 73.4 % | 26.3 TWh | 35.8 TWh |
| Czech Republic | 74.9 % | 34.0 TWh | 45.3 TWh |
| France | 80.3 % | 99.5 TWh | 123.9 TWh |
| Italy | 85.8 % | 174.5 TWh | 203.4 TWh |
| Poland | 98.5 % | 36.3 TWh | 36.8 TWh |
The gap was made in spring. The 2025/26 winter was harsh and storage came out of the heating season at around 30 per cent (Wikipedia, March 2026); then came the war. The closure of Hormuz from March 2026 removed Qatari LNG from the world market, and the strike on Ras Laffan on 18 March took out 17 per cent of Qatar's capacity for three to five years (Wikipedia). Injecting was expensive all summer, and operators booked cautiously.
2. How far injection can get by 1 November, and what winter needs
Against the 80 per cent per facility required by 1 November, German storage is about 22 percentage points short on the end-of-September level (own calculation from 57.7 and 80 per cent), and Minister Reiche has instructed Sefe to buy and store eight terawatt-hours of gas by 15 December (ZDFheute, 30 September 2026). The instruction is justified by continuing geopolitical risks; a strategic gas reserve will be built in 2027 after a change in the law. Set against the 247.5 TWh capacity, eight terawatt-hours correspond to roughly 3 percentage points of fill level (AGSI capacity, own calculation).
We no longer carry forward the straight-line extrapolation of 22 September (plus 0.29 percentage points a day, about 68 per cent on 1 November): the AGSI value of 22 September (56.8 per cent) and the latest Bundesnetzagentur value reported on 30 September (57.7 per cent) are only about 0.9 points apart, an own calculation from two sources and therefore an order of magnitude only. The 80 per cent applies per facility, six named sites such as Rehden need only 45 per cent, and 30 per cent is required on 1 February (Bundesnetzagentur). At EU level a flexible 83 per cent target applies between 1 October and 1 December with a ten-point tolerance below (Cleanthinking).
What matters is demand, not the target. The storage operators' association INES works with the 76 per cent the market has booked for winter 2026/27: in a normal or mild winter, 76 to 77 per cent is enough. In an extremely cold winter like 2010, up to 9 TWh a month would be missing in February and March 2027 and more than a quarter of daily demand on some January days; INES managing director Sebastian Heinermann: in an exceptionally cold winter "the risks increase significantly" (Cleanthinking, as of 5 September 2026). At 57.7 per cent at the end of September, even the mild scenario is not yet in the ground.
3. What is moving the gas price now
The TTF traded at €73.39 per megawatt-hour on 2 October 2026 (−0.75 per cent; Trading Economics); on 22 September the front month had stood at €70.66, 3.5 per cent below the previous day, after more than €84 a week earlier, its highest since late 2022 (finanzen.at). The price is therefore about €2.7 above the 22 September level (own calculation from two sources, to be read as a direction only).
On the LNG market Qatar has extended its cancellations: Pakistan, Bangladesh and an Indian buyer are affected through November, Edison until early December; LNG prices are at their highest since late 2022 (The National, 28 September 2026). The state purchase ordered from Sefe is covered in the section above. Our glossary explains the TTF gas price and the mechanics of EU gas storage.
4. What gas and oil heaters should do now
For gas customers the storage picture is no reason to panic but a reason for care: 76 per cent of booked capacity covers a normal winter, not a very cold one without imports and savings. If you hold a fixed-price contract running into spring 2027, keep it; if you are on a default tariff, compare now while the TTF is below €75 (€73.39 on 2 October, Trading Economics). Cutting consumption is the one lever that always works: one degree less room temperature saves roughly six per cent of heating energy by the German Environment Agency's rule of thumb, and our saving tips list the rest.
For oil heaters the situation is the reverse: heating oil does not depend on storage but has been expensive for weeks, €164.57 per 100 litres at 3,000 litres on 2 October 2026 at 12:24, 2.41 per cent below the previous day (HeizOel24). Our page Germany heating oil price forecast has the ordering rule and the winter scenarios.
See in a minute what a winter at €70 or €100 per MWh means for your heating bill.
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